The Pew warning for Trump: India's pro-US consensus is fraying fast

A new Pew Research survey shows more people in world now favour China and its President Xi Jinping more than the US and its President Donald Trump. It's a sharp turn forced by Trump's policies towards allies. India, along with five other countries, however, remains an exception as it still has more favourable view of the US and Trump than of China and Xi. But there is a catch.

More people have favorable views of China than the US in 25 out of the 36 countries and territories that were surveyed, including Canada and Mexico. The poll was conducted from February to May. In only six countries do people still see the US more positively than China, according to the findings released Wednesday. Views in 22 out of the 36 countries and territories also are more favorable of Xi than Trump, including in Canada, Mexico and major European powers including France, Germany and the UK. India again is an exception.

Alongside India, the other countries in this small group are Israel, Poland, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. But there is a catch hidden beneath the numbers. A comparison with Pew's survey from a year earlier, July 2025, shows that while India still prefers the US over China, both America and Trump have suffered a significant erosion of goodwill among Indians.


Also Read | China and Xi are seen more favorably than the US and Trump in many nations, new survey says

The Pew findings

In most countries surveyed by Pew, China's image has improved while confidence in Trump has weakened. Against that backdrop, India stands out as an exception. The latest survey shows that Indians continue to hold considerably more favourable views of the US than of China. Similarly, confidence in Trump remains much higher than confidence in Xi. On the surface, this suggests that India's long-standing tilt towards Washington remains intact despite recent diplomatic disagreements and trade tensions.

That conclusion is not wrong but just incomplete. A closer look at the numbers reveals that the real story is not where India stands today. It is how much Indian attitudes towards the US and Trump have changed over the past year.

How America and Trump lost favour with Indians

According to Pew's July 2025 survey, 54 per cent of Indians held a favourable view of the US. By July 2026, that figure had fallen to 45 per cent. A nine-point decline in a single year is significant for a country where favourable views of America have generally remained strong across different administrations.

The drop in confidence in Trump is even steeper. In July 2025, 52 per cent of Indians expressed confidence in Trump. A year later, that number had fallen to 39 per cent. The thirteen-point decline represents one of the most notable changes in India's perceptions of a major foreign leader in recent years.

Trump's rating has fallen more sharply than America's rating. That indicates many Indians may be separating their view of the US as a country from their view of the man currently occupying the White House.

Also Read | Trump says made 'fantastic trade deals' with Xi

Trump's image takes a big hit in India

Several developments over the past year can explain why Trump's popularity has weakened in India. The most obvious factor is the repeated friction over trade. Trump's tariff threats against India have received extensive attention and have often been interpreted as pressure tactics directed at a country that sees itself as an increasingly important strategic partner of the US.

Trade disputes alone may not explain a thirteen-point drop in confidence. What may have mattered more is the perception that India has frequently been spoken about in a dismissive or transactional manner.

The controversy surrounding Operation Sindoor is particularly relevant in this context. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he played a decisive role in ending military tensions between India and Pakistan and has suggested that the threat of tariffs helped secure a truce. Indian officials have consistently rejected these claims. For many Indians, the issue is not merely about factual disagreement. It touches on questions of national agency and sovereignty. The repeated nature of the claims may also have amplified their impact. A single statement can be dismissed as political rhetoric. Repeated assertions over months can shape perceptions of a leader's attitude towards another country.

Another factor is Trump's public praise for Pakistan's military leadership. Given the deeply negative image of the Pakistani military among large sections of Indian public opinion, such remarks are unlikely to be well received. Even Indians who remain broadly supportive of closer ties with the US may view such comments as insensitive to India's security concerns.

Add to that Trump's crackdown on H1B visas and other immigration policies. With a large number of Indians and Indian-origin people living in the US and strong corporate ties between the two countries, Trump's immigration policies too have played a role in his image taking a beating in India.

These developments may have contributed to a sense that Trump's approach towards India is less aligned with Indian expectations than many had assumed a year ago.

Why America also lost ground

The decline in America's rating suggests that some of the disappointment has extended beyond Trump himself. For more than two decades, the US has enjoyed considerable goodwill in India. The relationship has been strengthened by educational links, business ties, technology partnerships, defence cooperation and the presence of a large Indian diaspora in America.

That goodwill created high expectations. When expectations are high, slights tend to have a greater impact. Indians who once saw the US as a uniquely dependable strategic partner may have become more cautious after a year marked by tariff threats, diplomatic friction and public disagreements over India-Pakistan issues.

Yet the decline should not be exaggerated. Even after losing nine percentage points, the US remains substantially more popular in India than China. The data points to disappointment rather than rejection.

The China story

An equally important aspect of the survey is what did not happen. If Indian opinion were shifting decisively away from America, one might expect a substantial improvement in perceptions of China. The numbers do not show that except a small uptick.

In July 2025, 21 per cent of Indians held a favourable view of China. In July 2026, that figure edged up to 23 per cent. Confidence in Xi moved from 24 per cent to 25 per cent over the same period. These are modest changes. They suggest that China has made little progress in overcoming the deep scepticism that exists within Indian public opinion. The border dispute remains unresolved while the memory of the Galwan clash remains fresh. China's close relationship with Pakistan continues to shape Indian perceptions. Strategic rivalry between the two countries remains a central feature of Asian geopolitics.

As a result, a decline in support for America did not automatically translate into greater enthusiasm for China.

Scepticism, not realignment

The broader lesson from the survey is that Indian public opinion may be entering a more sceptical phase. The numbers do not indicate a pro-China turn. Nor do they suggest a collapse in support for the US. Instead, they point to a narrowing of the gap between the two powers because America has lost goodwill more rapidly than China has gained it.

Many Indians appear to be arriving at a position that can be summed up quite simply -- they remain more comfortable with the US than with China, but they are less enthusiastic about America and much less enthusiastic about Trump than they were a year ago.

It means India's strategic preferences have not fundamentally changed. What has changed is the degree of confidence and warmth with which many Indians view the American president and, to a lesser extent, the US itself.

In Pew Research survey, India is one of the few countries where America and Trump continue to outperform China and Xi. But the comparison with last year's Pew data reveals the more consequential trend. India may still be in the American camp when forced to choose between the world's two major powers. It is simply far less impressed with Trump than it was twelve months ago.