'Super' El Nino could bring 4.5 lakh excess deaths, India among vulnerable: Report

Extreme heat from this year’s “super El Nino” could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths globally in the six months through February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.

The number of extremely hot days is expected to rise 44% compared with normal years, increasing the risk of heat-related deaths across several regions, a Reuters report said on Wednesday, citing the Climate Impact Lab.

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Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of excess heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, at around 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.

The Sahel region of Africa, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, could see an additional 66,800 deaths over the six-month period, the researchers estimated.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to record a combined 19,400 additional deaths linked to extreme heat.

The toll could rise further if El Nino persists into 2027. Northern hemisphere countries including India and Pakistan could be particularly vulnerable during their summer months, the researchers said.

The Climate Impact Lab described this year's El Nino as a “postcard from the future”, saying it is bringing temperatures that could become normal within the next few decades, as per the report.

The researchers called for emergency response measures to be focused on regions facing the highest risks of heat-related mortality in the coming months.

Also Read: India's monsoon deficit widens to 15%, strengthening El Nino poses farm risk: Report

“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, as cited by Reuters.