Strong El Nino likely to develop rapidly, says UN weather agency

Geneva: The United Nations weather agency on Friday raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Nino in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures ‌in the central ⁠and ⁠eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, that can drive up global temperatures ​and increase the risk of extreme weather, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

"El Nino conditions have ​emerged in the Equatorial Pacific, and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Nino," said Alvaro Silva, a scientist at ​the WMO.


The intensity of El Nino is important ⁠because it ‌increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in different ​parts of ​the world, Silva said.

In early June the WMO had forecast ⁠a moderate or possibly a strong El Nino but it ​said recent forecasts had given it more confidence that strong ​El Nino conditions are developing in the equatorial Pacific. The WMO said it could further revise up its forecast if information later in the summer points to a very strong El Nino.

Seasonal forecasts indicate a strong and robust typical pattern of El Nino, including drier than normal conditions in parts of the world, such ‌as Central America, Caribbean, North and South America, and drier patterns in South Asia during the monsoon season in parts of Indonesia ​and South ​East Asia, according to the ⁠WMO.

"El Nino will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Nino years the global temperatures normally reach record levels," Silva said.

Europe experienced ​its worst recorded heatwave between June 20-28, causing disruption to power generation, damaging infrastructure and overwhelming healthcare systems, experts said. The extreme heat was almost certainly driven by climate change, scientists said.

The effects of El Nino will be felt in different regions until the end of the year and into 2027, Silva added