Putin to attack NATO member? Russia builds 10 secret drone bases with 59 launch rails as US intelligence warns Kremlin may test alliance with a limited strike

Could Russian President Vladimir Putin actually attack a NATO country? A new US intelligence assessment has raised that possibility, warning that the Russian president could try to test the alliance's resolve with a limited attack rather than immediately launching a full-scale war. The warning comes as Russia is reportedly expanding a network of secret drone bases capable of launching long-range weapons toward NATO territory.

A Telegraph investigation has identified 10 Russian drone bases and 59 launch rails, according to reporting published Monday. The sites are located near Russia's borders with Ukraine and Belarus, with the infrastructure designed to support the country's growing fleet of attack drones. The development has added to growing concerns across Europe about what Russia could do if the war in Ukraine develops into a direct confrontation with NATO.

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US intelligence warns Putin could test NATO

The biggest concern is not necessarily that Putin is preparing for an immediate, all-out war with NATO. Instead, US intelligence reportedly believes the Kremlin could attempt a limited attack designed to test how the alliance responds.

The scenarios being examined range from cyberattacks and covert operations to a small-scale military incursion. The objective could be to exploit uncertainty over NATO's response and expose divisions between member states.

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That represents a shift in Washington's assessment. Earlier US intelligence judgments had suggested Putin was unlikely to directly challenge NATO while Russia remained heavily committed to the war in Ukraine.

The newer assessment indicates that this calculation may be changing. According to reports, the potential window being discussed stretches from this autumn through 2029.

Russia's secret drone bases raise fresh fears

Against that backdrop, Russia's reported expansion of its drone infrastructure has attracted particular attention. The Telegraph investigation says it identified 10 bases capable of launching powerful drones deep into NATO territory. Across the locations, investigators reportedly found 59 launch rails.

Several of the sites have already been associated with Russia's war against Ukraine, while the newer infrastructure could give Moscow additional flexibility in launching large numbers of drones.

The significance is not simply the number of bases. It is their location and the growing range of Russian drones.

New Russian drones could reach deep into NATO

Russia has increasingly relied on drones during its war against Ukraine, including domestically produced versions of Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Newer Russian models are reportedly faster and have considerably longer ranges than earlier versions.

That means a drone launched from western Russia could potentially travel hundreds of kilometres toward NATO territory. Poland is particularly important in this calculation. Warsaw and other areas on NATO's eastern flank could potentially fall within the operating range of newer Russian drones, according to the reporting surrounding the investigation.

The presence of launch infrastructure does not mean Russia intends to attack Poland or another NATO member. But it gives Moscow more military options if the political situation deteriorates.

Why a limited attack could be dangerous

NATO's biggest strength is also what makes a limited Russian attack potentially complicated. Under Article 5, an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all.

But US intelligence believes Putin could attempt to stay below the threshold of an obvious large-scale attack, creating uncertainty about how the alliance should respond. The Baltic states and Poland have reportedly been identified as possible areas of concern.

A cyberattack, sabotage operation or small military incursion could therefore create a difficult choice for NATO. Respond too aggressively, and the alliance risks escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia.

Respond too weakly, and Moscow could conclude that NATO's collective-defence pledge can be challenged without triggering a unified military response. That is precisely why the intelligence warning about Putin potentially testing NATO's resolve is attracting so much attention.

Drone incidents are already raising alarms

The concerns are not occurring in isolation. NATO countries have experienced a growing number of incidents involving drones near or inside their airspace. A NATO jet recently shot down a drone over Latvia amid concerns about Russian activity near the alliance's eastern borders.

European officials have also warned that Russia is using hybrid tactics to probe NATO's defences without necessarily crossing the line into open war.

For NATO, that creates another problem: determining whether an incident is accidental, deliberate or part of a broader Russian operation.

Is Putin preparing to attack NATO?

There is no confirmation that Putin has decided to attack NATO. The US intelligence assessment is a warning about a possible future scenario, not a prediction that a Russian attack is inevitable.

Likewise, the construction of drone bases demonstrates military capability, but it does not by itself prove Russian intent to attack a NATO country. Still, the combination of the two developments is difficult for European governments to ignore.

Russia is expanding its long-range drone capabilities at the same time US intelligence is warning that Putin could eventually test NATO with a limited strike.