Putin doesn't want peace. He wants more time

It should be obvious by now that Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing for time. His negotiators are dragging out peace talks, making enough conciliatory noises to fend off renewed US pressure while Russian missiles and drones pound Ukraine. If the White House wants to broker a lasting settlement, it’s going to have to make continued war more costly for him.

With Russian forces registering little progress on the front lines, the Kremlin has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Earlier this month, on the eve of negotiations in Abu Dhabi, Russia launched 450 drones and 71 missiles at Ukraine’s energy grid in -20C (-4F) temperatures. Days later, Russia struck again, targeting the high-voltage transmission lines that form the grid’s backbone.

Each strike compounds previous damage. Ukraine’s largest private power producer, DTEK, says roughly 80% of its thermal generating capacity was destroyed or damaged. Those fuel-fired plants, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of Ukraine’s thermal capacity before the war, provide both electricity and district heating. Ukrainians now face not only blackouts but also freezing homes, stalled elevators in tall buildings and disrupted water supplies. Kyiv residents get only a few hours of electricity a day. The city’s mayor says nearly 600,000 people have fled the capital.


The Kremlin’s aim is twofold: to freeze Ukrainian civilians into submission, and to convince the world that Russia’s victory is inevitable and aid to Ukraine merely delays that outcome at needless expense. In fact, after nearly four years of fighting, Russia controls only a fifth of Ukraine’s territory and has made paltry territorial gains since early in the war — at enormous cost. An estimated 1.2 million Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded or are missing. Roughly 40% of federal spending now goes to defense and security, draining Russia’s economy and hollowing out its workforce.

Additional pressure on Putin would have an impact, which is one reason his negotiators are working so assiduously to avert it. Europe has sent emergency generators and relocated an entire thermal power plant from Lithuania to Ukraine. But what’s really needed are additional air-defense systems to protect substations and power plants, as well as more transformers and grid-hardening equipment.

Meanwhile, the US and Europe need to focus on further strangling Russia’s income from oil exports. A bipartisan sanctions bill in the US Senate, targeting buyers such as India and China, would help. So would a proposed new European Union sanctions package, which includes a ban on EU-linked companies providing insurance, repairs, financing and other shipping services to any tanker carrying Russian oil.

After World War II, nations agreed that wars should have limits. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Russian commanders over strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While Russia rejects the court’s jurisdiction, attacks on objects indispensable to civilian survival are prohibited under the Geneva Conventions and customary international law. The idea that they can bring peace closer is risible. It’s time the US said so.

(The opinions expressed above are those of the Bloomberg Editorial Board, and do not represent EconomicTimes.com's views)