Pangea Ultima: In 200 million years, Earth could have a new supercontinent, and its climate may be almost impossible for humans to survive

Earth's continents may look permanent on a human timescale, but they are constantly moving. Driven by the slow movement of tectonic plates, today's familiar map is only a temporary arrangement in the planet's much longer geological history.

Scientists expect the continents to eventually come together again, forming another supercontinent hundreds of millions of years after the breakup of Pangea. But the biggest surprise may not be the shape of that future world. It could be the climate.

Research suggests that one possible future supercontinent, known as Pangea Ultima, could create such extreme conditions that large parts of Earth's land surface become unsuitable for mammals.


The scenario is not a prediction of exactly what Earth will look like. Instead, it is one of several possible outcomes based on how tectonic plates and oceans may evolve over the next 200 to 300 million years.

Earth's continents are already moving toward another supercontinent

The breakup of Pangea began roughly 180 million years ago, separating the landmasses that would eventually become today's continents. That process created the Atlantic Ocean and dramatically changed the geography of the planet.

But plate tectonics never stopped.

The Pacific Ocean is gradually shrinking as oceanic crust is pushed beneath surrounding plates, while the Atlantic is still spreading. Over hundreds of millions of years, these movements can completely rearrange the world's oceans and continents.

Scientists estimate that another supercontinent could form in roughly 200 to 300 million years.

The exact arrangement, however, remains uncertain.

Four possible versions of Earth's next supercontinent

Researchers have proposed several ways the continents could eventually reunite. Four major scenarios are commonly discussed: Novopangea, Aurica, Amasia and Pangea Ultima. Each depends on a different combination of future plate movements and ocean closure.

Novopangea: the Pacific disappears

In the Novopangea scenario, the Pacific Ocean continues shrinking until it eventually closes.

The Americas would move toward Asia, while other continental blocks would converge around them. The resulting supercontinent would occupy a configuration very different from the original Pangea.

This scenario broadly follows the direction of some plate movements occurring today and has been considered one of the more straightforward possibilities in earlier modelling.

Aurica: both major oceans close

Aurica would take a more dramatic route.

Here, both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans would eventually disappear. A new ocean basin would have to develop elsewhere as the continents reorganise into an entirely new configuration.

Australia could occupy a central position within this future landmass, while the Americas, Asia, Europe and Africa would be brought together through the closure of the existing oceans.

Amasia: the continents head north

Amasia presents perhaps the strangest vision of Earth's future.

Under this scenario, several continents continue drifting northward and eventually gather around the Arctic region. Antarctica would remain largely isolated in the south.

Instead of one huge equatorial landmass, much of the world's future continental area would be concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere.

Pangea Ultima: a second Pangea takes shape

The fourth scenario is Pangea Ultima, sometimes referred to as Pangea Proxima.

In this model, the Atlantic eventually stops expanding and begins to close. New subduction zones could develop, drawing the Americas back toward Europe and Africa.

The result would be a supercontinent broadly resembling Pangea in its overall arrangement, although it would not be an exact recreation of the ancient landmass.

The biggest problem may be what happens to Earth's climate

A giant continent does more than change the map.

It can fundamentally alter rainfall, ocean circulation and the distribution of heat. Vast areas of land would be located far from the moderating influence of the oceans, creating a powerful continental climate effect.

That matters because researchers studying Pangea Ultima have found that geography alone could substantially increase temperatures across the future landmass.

A 2023 study published in Nature Geoscience modelled the climate and mammalian habitability of a future Pangea Ultima roughly 250 million years from now. The researchers also accounted for the fact that the Sun will be brighter in the distant future.

A brighter Sun could make an already difficult climate worse

Earth's future climate would not be controlled by tectonic activity alone.

The Sun gradually becomes more luminous as it ages. The study estimates that about 250 million years from now, solar energy reaching Earth could be around 2.5% higher than today.

Combined with changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and the geography of a massive supercontinent, that additional energy could push temperatures in many regions far beyond the range in which mammals can comfortably survive.

This creates a striking possibility: Earth's future could be shaped by several slow processes that individually seem insignificant but become powerful when combined over hundreds of millions of years.

Most of the future land could become hostile to mammals

The climate modelling paints a particularly challenging picture for mammals.

In the researchers' simulations, the global mean annual temperature of Pangea Ultima varied substantially depending on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. More importantly, the land itself became much hotter than the global average because of the enormous continental interior.

Under one high-carbon-dioxide scenario, only about 8% of Earth's land remained within the modelled range considered habitable for mammals.

At a lower carbon-dioxide level, the situation was less severe, but habitability still fell sharply compared with the pre-industrial Earth. The researchers found that geography itself produced a major warming effect over the future supercontinent.

That does not mean scientists expect today's mammals to survive—or disappear—on a precise timetable. Evolution will continue for hundreds of millions of years, and entirely new species could emerge long before the next supercontinent is complete.

Why a future supercontinent could be so extreme

One of the biggest challenges would be the enormous distance between the interior of the continent and the ocean.

Today, oceans help transport and redistribute heat around the planet. Coastal areas also tend to experience more moderate temperatures than continental interiors.

On a giant supercontinent, however, huge areas could sit thousands of kilometres from the nearest ocean.

The result could be an enormous interior region with intense heat, limited moisture and widespread desert conditions.

The climate models indicate that this continental effect could be one of the most important factors pushing mammalian habitats beyond their physiological limits.

Earth would not become lifeless

The idea of an uninhabitable future supercontinent should not be confused with Earth becoming completely sterile.

Life has survived enormous environmental changes throughout geological history. Species evolve, disappear and are replaced by others.

Even within the Pangea Ultima modelling, the researchers found that habitability varied substantially depending on atmospheric conditions. Some regions could remain suitable for mammals, while other forms of life could occupy environments that today's species cannot tolerate.

There is also an important distinction between saying that mammals could face severe extinction pressure and saying that all life on Earth would disappear. The latter does not follow from the research.

The next Pangea is still far beyond human timescales

The timescale is almost impossible to comprehend.

The proposed supercontinent scenarios concern a world roughly 200 to 300 million years in the future. The models themselves are not forecasts in the ordinary sense; they are simulations of possible outcomes based on tectonic assumptions.

Even scientists cannot know today exactly which ocean will eventually close or which continental configuration will win out.

What is much more certain is that Earth's surface will continue to change.

The continents that seem fixed beneath our feet are actually part of a planetary cycle measured not in decades or centuries, but in hundreds of millions of years.

And when the next supercontinent finally takes shape, Earth may be recognisable on a map—but its climate, ecosystems and dominant species could be completely different from anything familiar today.