JPMorgan drops US recession call, ups China outlook

JPMorgan Chase & Co boosted its forecast for US economic growth after a temporary trade deal between the US and China, dropping its earlier call that the world's largest economy would sink into a recession in 2025, whil ealso projecting a higher 4.8% pace of growth for China.

"The administration's recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year," JPMorgan Chief US Economist Michael Feroli said on Tuesday. "We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%."

Feroli said the bank now sees the US economy growing 0.6% in 2025, up from 0.2% previously, and a key measure of underlying inflation-based on the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy-rising to 3.5% instead of 4%.


Meanwhile. Goldman Sachs Group and other major banks boosted their growth forecasts for China's economy, citing a temporary deal with the US to de-escalate their trade conflict. Analysts at ING Groep NV boosted their forecast to 4.7%, with potential for an increase if a deal is reached in the next few months.

Goldman Sachs expects real gross domestic product in the world's second-largest economy to rise 4.6% in 2025 from a prior estimate of 4%, analysts led by Andrew Tilton wrote in a research note to clients Tuesday.

"This was a larger-than-expected de-escalation and represents an upgrade, though the negotiations will remain challenging," ING China chief economist Lynn Song had said on Monday.