Is recession on the cards in US? World's largest alternative asset management firm CEO says...

The high-stake US Presidential elections is around the corner. The crucial elections is set to be one of the most impactful events for global markets and economies this year going into next.

Donald Trump has reiterated commitment to tweaking US immigration policies, vowed tax cuts, imposing immense tariffs. Many economists have warned a second Trump administration could unleash inflationary pressures that further destabilize an already fragile US economy that is in the process of recovering from the price shocks of the pandemic years.

Ahead of the US elections, Blackstone chief executive officer Steve Schwarzman has revealed whether recession is on the cards for US or not. Steve Schwarzman has stated whether US will face recession or not regardless of who wins the elections.


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Is recession on the cards in US?

A recession isn’t in the cards regardless of who wins the election, according to the boss of one of the world’s biggest asset managers. The economy’s “pretty strong” and both candidates “keep mentioning a lot of stimulative policies,” Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman told Bloomberg in an interview. Steve Schwarzman said the US is likely to avoid a recession regardless of who wins the presidential election, as both candidates have policy proposals that appeal to growth.

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“I don’t see a recession risk because the economy is pretty strong and both of the candidates keep mentioning a lot of stimulative policies,” the 77-year-old billionaire private equity chief said Wednesday in an interview in Tokyo. “But time will tell as to what anybody actually will be able or want to do.”

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It is pertinent to note that Trump's proposal of tariffs and Kamala Harris's bid to boost affordable housing- would be significant for businesses like Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager. Blackstone is an American investment management company that specializes in alternative assets.

Schwarzman said historically Democrats have taken a more “vigorous approach” to regulation, and that could impact some buying and selling for the private equity industry. “I think it’s impossible at this point to predict what either of them will actually do,” he told Bloomberg. “Since they keep coming out with new announcements almost every day to counter what the other one is doing.”

Interest rates to go down, says Schwarzman

In May Schwarzman said he will raise money for Trump's presidential campaign. When he met Trump, he expressed his concern US economic, immigration and foreign policies were going in the “wrong direction.”

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The Blackstone CEO has now said he sees an improving environment for making deals and exiting investments as interest rates are likely to continue to fall in the US.

“Interest rates will continue to go down and that’ll provide an impetus of more transactions both on the buy and the sell," he added. “It’s really about interest rates and economic growth,” he said. “Interest rates will continue to go down and that’ll provide an impetus of more transactions both on the buy and the sell.”

Dealmaking will likely continue to be robust in Japan, India and Australia — markets where Blackstone have been active this past year, Schwarzman said. While Europe is likely to see the lowest economic growth among developed nations, that could still present opportunities, he added.