How Trump's stock portfolio rode oil price rollercoaster: Report

Oil has crossed above $100 a barrel for the first time in six weeks as fighting involving US and Iranian forces deepened fears of wider supply disruptions while concerns also persist over recent Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities. The timing is particularly awkward for US President Donald Trump as Republicans are already trying to stave off negative impact of high gas prices in the US on midterm elections.

Meanwhile, a CNBC analysis reveals that Trump’s oil investments have gained millions during the six months of war with Iran as his investment accounts continued trading energy stocks affected by his own wartime decisions. CNBC estimates that his nine largest disclosed oil and gas holdings gained between $1.5 million and $4.4 million from Feb. 27, the eve of the war, through Aug. 31.

However, CNBC found no evidence Trump directed the trades or had advance knowledge. The White House says independent managers control the portfolio, and the Trump Organization has said Trump’s asset managers use automated trading. Still, the timing of some trades, particularly around major shifts in Trump’s Iran policy, has drawn attention.


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A multimillion-dollar bet on energy

As per the CNBC analysis, Trump entered the Iran conflict with sizeable positions in nine major oil and gas companies: Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy and Williams Companies.

CNBC identified those companies by aggregating Trump's year-end 2025 holdings across his investment accounts and ranking them according to their disclosed value.

The report then compared the share-price movements of those companies between Feb. 27 and Aug. 31 with the ranges Trump disclosed for each holding. Because his filings do not reveal exact share counts, purchase prices or which specific shares were sold, CNBC stressed that the figures represent estimated paper gains rather than realized profits.

The accounts continued trading throughout the conflict. Trump's disclosures show purchases and at least 23 sales involving the nine companies through June 29, the latest date for which his trades were publicly disclosed.

The CNBC report said there is no evidence that Trump or his investment managers traded based on advance knowledge of his decisions. It also found no evidence that his financial interests influenced policy or that Trump personally directed a particular transaction.

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The White House has strongly rejected the conflict-of-interest argument. White House spokesman Davis Ingle told CNBC that neither Trump nor his family can direct, influence or provide input on the portfolio and that all decisions are made by independent managers.

The Trump Organization did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment. It has previously told the network that outside financial institutions control individual investment decisions and that Trump's assets are held in fully discretionary accounts that rely heavily on automated trading.

Trades landed on some remarkable days

The issue becomes more complicated when the trading record is placed alongside Trump's Iran decisions. On March 2, the first trading day after the initial US-Israeli attack on Iran, Trump's accounts reported purchases in eight major oil and gas companies, as per CNBC analysis. That included between $100,001 and $250,000 of Exxon shares.

As per the CNBC report, Trump had between $3.2 million and $12.5 million invested in Exxon when the war began. By Aug. 31, the rise in Exxon's share price alone had added an estimated $176,000 to $690,000 to that initial position, before taking later transactions into account.

Energy strategist Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James told CNBC that the oil market's movements were directly tied to what he described as the largest oil supply disruption in history. Because oil is globally traded, he said, the resulting price increase affected everyone.

Then came an especially notable episode. On March 23, Trump postponed threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before markets opened, saying he had held "very good and productive conversations." Brent crude subsequently plunged almost 11% as investors bet on de-escalation.

That same day, Trump's accounts reported 16 oil and gas stock purchases and no sales. The combined disclosed value was approximately $163,000 to $570,000 and included Exxon, Chevron and Phillips 66, CNBC reported.

Transparency International U.S. executive Scott Greytak told CNBC that Trump's ceasefire efforts were directly playing into investment decisions being pursued by his accounts. The report, however, does not establish that Trump knew about those trades or that the trades were made because of his policy decisions.

Another episode occurred on April 7. A Trump account reported selling between $500,001 and $1 million in Exxon shares. More than two hours after the market closed, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Exxon opened more than 6% lower the following morning.

CNBC estimated that if the shares sold had been held since before the war, their value had risen by roughly $35,000 to $70,000 before the sale. But the network cautioned that the filings do not show when those particular shares were bought, so the figure cannot be treated as Trump's actual profit.

Donald Sherman, president of the ethics watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told CNBC that the optics were difficult to defend.

The blind-trust argument

The White House's central defence is that Trump does not control the portfolio. Ethics experts interviewed by CNBC say that does not necessarily settle the issue.

Greytak described a discretionary investment account as "a smokescreen, not a blind trust." His argument is that even if someone else executes the trades, Trump remains aware that he has substantial exposure to energy stocks and can benefit when government action pushes those stocks higher.

Sherman similarly argued that the public is left questioning where government policy ends and private financial interest begins when presidential decisions can move markets in which the president has substantial investments.

That is the distinction at the heart of the CNBC analysis. It does not allege insider trading or establish that Trump personally traded on secret information. Instead, it highlights how closely the president's policy decisions and financial interests can intersect even when trading is outsourced.

Democrats see a much bigger windfall

Democratic staff on the congressional Joint Economic Committee calculated that Trump's broader oil and gas portfolio had risen by as much as $15.5 million this year. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., seized on that figure, writing on X that Trump owned millions of dollars in oil and gas stocks at the end of 2025 and that those assets were now worth considerably more after the Iran war.

Several congressional Democrats have also suggested they could investigate Trump's trading and family business interests if they gain control of either chamber in the November midterms.

The scrutiny extends beyond Trump's own portfolio. On Aug. 27, Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., opened an investigation into 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. Raskin alleged the firm benefited from administration contracts, funding and regulatory decisions. Trump Jr. told The Guardian that the allegations were "unsubstantiated talking points."

Trump's financial interests in the region also extend beyond stocks. The CNBC report noted tens of millions of dollars in income connected to his foreign real-estate licensing business.

Oil companies won while consumers paid more

The portfolio's gains have come as the war delivered a major windfall to oil producers and refiners while increasing energy costs for Americans. As per the CNBC analysis, the nine companies in Trump's portfolio reported a combined $47.6 billion in second-quarter profit, compared with $15.9 billion a year earlier.

Exxon and Chevron alone reported $26.6 billion in combined second-quarter profit, up from $9.6 billion a year earlier. Higher crude prices and stronger refining margins were major factors.

The three refiners in Trump's portfolio, Marathon, Phillips 66 and Valero, reported another $12.7 billion in combined profit.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods said in July that refining capacity relative to demand was at its tightest level outside the pandemic. He warned that high margins lead to high product prices. Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier made a similar point, saying refining conditions could remain strong even if peace returned immediately.