How El Niño is neutralizing Atlantic hurricanes this season

The Atlantic hurricane season is showing signs of activity just as a powerful climate pattern threatens to keep tropical storms in check.

Cristobal became the third named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday, but the system quickly weakened into a tropical depression over the open North Atlantic. It is expected to dissipate by Thursday afternoon, according to CNN.

The brief appearance of Cristobal comes as forecasters watch two other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. One has an 80% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression later this week, while another area farther east has a 50% chance of development.


If another tropical storm forms, it will receive the name Dolly.

El Niño remains the biggest obstacle

The Atlantic may be approaching the period when hurricane activity normally begins to accelerate, but conditions are far from ideal for storms.

The main problem is wind shear linked to El Niño. Changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere can disrupt developing tropical systems, preventing them from organizing or causing existing storms to weaken.

CNN reported that this hostile wind shear has become firmly established across parts of the Atlantic where tropical activity would normally be increasing.

The situation could become even more challenging if El Niño strengthens into a potentially record-breaking Super El Niño later this year.

Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet

The slow start has made 2026 one of the least active Atlantic hurricane seasons in years.

Through August 11, only Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal had become named tropical storms. CNN reported that this represents the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 2009.

Arthur formed near the US Gulf Coast in June, while Bertha developed in late July. Both systems encountered significant wind shear, limiting their ability to strengthen.

Cristobal's development was notable for another reason: it was the first storm this season to form away from the immediate vicinity of the US coastline.

The storm is not expected to threaten land and should weaken over colder waters in the North Atlantic.

New tropical threat faces a difficult path

The tropical Atlantic is now being closely watched for another potential system.

The area with the highest chance of development is located in the Atlantic's main development region, where tropical systems typically become more numerous around this point in the season. Warm ocean temperatures usually provide energy for storms, while weakening wind shear allows them to become better organized.

This year, however, El Niño is disrupting that familiar pattern.

Hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University has described the wind shear as reaching record strength, according to CNN. A brief improvement in conditions later this week could give the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression.

But that opportunity may not last. The system is expected to move west across the tropical Atlantic before encountering increasingly unfavorable wind shear near the eastern Caribbean.

Another disturbance farther east also faces similar obstacles.

Hurricane season is behind its normal pace

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is noticeably lagging behind its typical timetable.

A normal season generally produces at least three named storms by August 3 and four by August 15. The first hurricane typically forms around August 11.

That milestone has passed without a hurricane developing this year.

There is still plenty of time for the Atlantic to become more active. The busiest part of the season usually runs from mid-August through mid-October, meaning conditions could change quickly if wind shear weakens and ocean temperatures remain favorable.

Still, the season's sluggish beginning has strengthened expectations that 2026 could remain relatively subdued.

NOAA raises odds of below-average season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has become increasingly confident that the season will finish below average.

NOAA's latest forecast update raised the probability of a below-normal hurricane season from 55% to 75%. The agency also lowered its expected range for major hurricanes, cutting the outlook from one to three Category 3 or stronger storms to zero to two.

Colorado State University has also projected a relatively muted season.

If the Atlantic goes through the entire 2026 season without producing a major hurricane, it would mark the first such occurrence since 2013.

For now, however, the tropics are entering the calendar period when activity typically picks up. Whether the Atlantic finally wakes up or El Niño continues to suppress the season will depend heavily on whether the powerful wind shear begins to ease in the weeks ahead.