Harris vs. Trump: Swing state showdown as AtlasIntel poll reveals surprising trend

A new poll indicates Donald Trump is leading in six of seven key swing states against Vice President Kamala Harris. The AtlasIntel poll, conducted from October 25-29, shows Trump ahead by 3.5% in Arizona, 3.4% in Georgia, 2.7% in Pennsylvania, 1.2% in Michigan, 0.9% in Nevada, and 0.5% in Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Harris leads by 0.5%.

The sample size ranged from 983 in Michigan to 1,665 in North Carolina with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3%, placing all races within the margin.

Previously, Harris was ahead in Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin in AtlasIntel’s October 17 poll.


Polling averages suggest a very close race ahead of Election Day. The New York Times polling average shows Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, while Harris has a slight lead in Michigan. Nevada and Wisconsin are tied.

FiveThirtyEight reports Harris leading in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, none by more than 2%.

AtlasIntel's latest poll predicts Trump would win 312 electoral votes should the election occur today. Nationally, Trump holds a 1.9% lead in the popular vote. AtlasIntel's CEO said, "The polls AtlasIntel released today were not our final polls. Expect one or two more releases prior to Election Day."

CNN reports that 61.0 million Americans have already cast ballots either by mail or early in-person. Latest CNN polls by SSRS show a tight race in Georgia and North Carolina, with Trump leading 48% to Harris’s 47% in Georgia, and Harris leading 48% to Trump’s 47% in North Carolina.

Harris leads among Black voters and voters with college degrees in both states. Trump leads among white voters without college degrees.

Both campaigns are focusing on issues like border security and immigration in these critical battleground states.