Global trade expected to grow about 7% in 2025: UNCTAD

Global trade is expected to grow about 7% in 2025, adding $2.2 trillion and setting a new record, UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) said in its year-end Global Trade Update Tuesday.

India and China posted some of the strongest growth in services exports, underscoring the growing weight of emerging economies in global trade, it said, adding that China and South Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa.

“Between July and September, global trade grew 2.5% compared with the previous three months,” it said, adding that goods rose nearly 2% and services 4%.


The Geneva-based organisation said that growth is expected to continue in the year’s final quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.

“If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5 trillion to this year’s total and services $750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase,” it said.

Noting that a key shift is unfolding on prices, UNCTAD said that after two quarters in which trade values rose partly because goods became more expensive, prices are now expected to drop.

“As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes - the actual quantity of goods shipped - rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases,” it said.

As per the report, manufacturing, especially electronics-remains the main engine of growth, while energy and automotive sectors lag.

Trade imbalances stay high and geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping flows, with friendshoring and nearshoring strengthening again.

Looking to 2026, UNCTAD expects weaker growth as slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance.