Did Elon Musk's DOGE mislead the public about social security fraud? New data suggests...

Claims made by tech mogul Elon Musk and other members of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have been widely challenged. Elon Musk and fellow DOGE proponents' assertions about revamping Social Security due to colossal fraud losses have been met with skepticism, according to Fortune.

The publication highlighted Doge's attempt to overhaul the government's primary safety-net program, referencing allegations of massive fraud-related losses, even though Musk's team was denied access to official records. A frequently cited claim that 40% of Social Security calls are fraudulent is highly exaggerated. A recent report found that fewer than 1% of such calls show any potential connection to fraud, Fortune reported.

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What Elon Musk said on Social Security?

Elon Musk-led DOGE is aiming to reform Social Security, citing widespread fraud as the justification. Trump ally has alleged that his team of engineers has uncovered fraudulent entitlement payments totaling $100 billion per week—a figure he described as “utterly insane.”

Similar claims were made by the DOGE employees in April in an interview with Fox News. DOGE engineer and Musk employee Aram Moghaddassi told Bret Baier that 40% of calls to Social Security trying to change direct-deposit information are from fraudsters. “So when you want to change your bank account, you can call Social Security. We learned 40% of the calls that they get are from fraudsters,” Moghaddassi told Fox.

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This position was reiterated by Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick who suggested during a podcast appearance that the only people complaining about missing payments are fraudsters. “The easiest way to find the fraudster is to stop payments and listen, cause whoever screams is the one stealing,” he told the All-In podcast, highlighting his 94-year-old mother-in-law as an example of someone who wouldn’t call in to the government department.

What does the data show?

However, according to Fortune — the true rate of phone fraud, attributed to a news outlet that covers government technology, is just a fraction of 1%. Nextgov/FCW, which obtained an internal Social Security Administration document, reported that just two Social Security claims out of 110,000 had a high probability of being fraudulent. And fewer than 1% of claims put forward had any potential for fraud at, according to the outlet.

“No significant fraud has been detected from the flagged cases,” the internal document said, according to the tech news site.

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In its March announcement justifying changes to the benefits process, the Social Security Administration (SSA) noted that about 40% of direct deposit fraud involves callers requesting changes to bank account information—not that 40% of all phone calls are fraudulent. According to Fortune, the Digital Operations Government Entity (DOGE) did not respond to a request for comment.

An SSA spokesperson told Fortune that between March 29 and April 26, the agency’s new fraud detection system flagged 20,000 Social Security numbers where direct deposit changes were requested by phone but failed security checks. The SSA estimated that these measures prevented $19.9 million in fraud losses.

The spokesperson added that the agency is “continuing to refine its anti-fraud algorithms to target claims with the highest likelihood of fraud.”

A February report from the SSA’s Inspector General found that in fiscal year 2023, 0.6% of all payments in the agency’s old-age and disability programs were classified as overpayments. These included incorrect amounts paid due to outdated earnings data or changes in eligibility, such as beneficiaries moving into nursing homes.