CPEC II launch: Why Pakistan can't leave China for Trump

In the increasingly polarised global landscape, where the United States and China are locked in a multi-dimensional rivalry, Pakistan finds itself in a delicate, high-stakes balancing act. The formal launch of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC-II) during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s upcoming visit to China in August 2025 comes at a time when Islamabad appears to be re-engaging with Washington, signalling a recalibrated foreign policy that seeks to balance old loyalties with emerging strategic opportunities.

CPEC-II: Reinforcing the China-Pakistan axis
The original CPEC, a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), symbolises Beijing’s long-term strategic investment in Pakistan. Connecting Gwadar Port in Balochistan to China’s Xinjiang region through a network of roads, energy projects and special economic zones, the $60 billion project has provided Pakistan with much-needed infrastructure development and energy support over the past decade.


CPEC-II, expected to expand into sectors like agriculture, SEZs, digital economy, mining, and green energy, signals a deepening of that commitment. It underscores that despite growing concerns in the West over China's influence, Beijing is not retreating from its strategic bet on Pakistan. The timing of the launch is crucial. It sends a clear message: China views Pakistan as an indispensable partner in its regional strategy. Amid dire economic challenges Pakistan faces, CPEC-II can create jobs and provide a boost to several sectors of the economy.

China has invested in various power projects and road networks in Pakistan under the $60 billion CPEC plan. However, the implementation of various projects had slowed last year following terror attacks on Chinese personnel working on the ventures.

Warming up to America
Pakistan's recent outreach to the United States marks a pivot of equal significance. Following a period of estrangement, especially after the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan is once again engaging with the US. Trump, who was critical of Pakistan during his first term, has hosted the Pakistani army chief Asim Munir at the White House, indicating a renewed interest.

Behind this renewed US interest lie two key drivers. The US is eyeing Pakistan’s vast untapped reserves of rare earth minerals, especially in Balochistan, which are critical for green technologies, defense, and electronics. With rising tensions with China, the US is scrambling to secure alternative sources for these strategic materials. Also, Trump’ appears to be exploring crypto partnerships. In a bid to gain leverage, Pakistan has reportedly offered Trump's son, Eric Trump, cryptocurrency-related deals, as well as other undisclosed business ventures.

Pakistan's strategic dilemma
The reality is that both the US and China are now wooing Pakistan, albeit with different agendas. China offers long-term economic infrastructure and strategic alignment against India, while the US brings potential access to high-tech investments, global financial networks, and the broader Western economic order. For Pakistan, the stakes are high. Economically fragile, politically unstable, and facing pressing developmental challenges, Islamabad needs both Beijing’s capital and Washington’s clout. But it also risks antagonising one power while engaging the other too closely.

This tightrope walk is fraught with challenges. Washington still harbours deep suspicions about Pakistan’s military-intelligence links with non-state actors and its alignment with China while Beijing may be wary of Pakistan’s deepening engagement with the US, especially in strategic sectors like mining.

Speaking at an Atlantic Council event in the US last month, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said while the US is a “long-standing friend” to Pakistan, Dar said, China is a “strategic partner”. “Our foreign policy is not a zero-sum game,” he said. “We hope to see friendly relations between the US and China and do not wish to embroil in bloc politics.”

“It’s a matter of who gives a better deal,” he further said. “We should not be seeing the relationship through the lens of other [countries]. It has to stand alone.”

Why Pakistan can't ditch China for the US
Many experts believe Pakistan can't afford to ditch China for the US even as Trump's volatile behaviour does not guarantee lasting warmer relations.

“The United States cannot match the investments China has made in Pakistan or the way it meets our defense and economic interests,” Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US and the UN, told The New York Times recently. “The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has never been consistent.”

“There are benefits to being in Trump’s good papers — you praise him, he praises you,” Husain Haqqani, another former Pakistani ambassador to the US, told NYT. “But can America be a reliable ally with anybody? Modi had invested in his relationship with Trump, and look at now,” Mr. Haqqani added, referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. “Why would it be different with Pakistan?”

Two Chinese senior strategic experts have outlined to PTI for the first time China's view on the emerging Washington-Islamabad strategic paradigm in the broader context of Trump's geopolitical strategy.

"Pakistan will not develop its relations with the US at the cost of its relation with China," Hu Shisheng, Director of the Institute for South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told PTI early this month. "Pakistan will not be that easily hooked by Trump," Hu, regarded as an expert on South Asian politics, said.

Jesse Wang, a research fellow at Huaxia South Asia Economic and Cultural Exchange Centre of China, told PTI that "on the surface, Trump's candy to Pakistan looks like a disturbance to China, but actually, cannot affect the structural stability of the Sino-Pak relationship". He said, "The US intervention has created short-term geopolitical noise but is unlikely to shake the foundation of China-Pakistan dependence."

"For Pakistan, 'make profits both ways' economically is a rational choice, but its security and infrastructure lifelines are tied to China closely, and the strategic balance has not tilted," Wang said.

"Of course, the Trump team expects to see Pakistan getting away from China but Pakistan will not buy the story," Hu said. "Pakistan's strategic value or bargaining position with the US depends on Pakistan's close relations with China."