Congo’s Ebola outbreak is spreading at a terrifying speed — and experts say it hasn’t peaked

The Ebola outbreak spreading across eastern Congo is accelerating at a pace that has raised fears it could become one of the most devastating epidemics in the disease’s history.

Health authorities believe the true scale may already be far larger than official figures suggest, with many infections and potential contacts still going undetected.

Congo’s Ebola outbreak is spreading faster than authorities can track

The scale of the crisis is becoming harder to measure because officials believe a significant share of infections remains undetected. Africa CDC estimates that only around 30% to 40% of cases may have been identified so far, raising the possibility that the actual outbreak could be substantially larger than the confirmed tally.

The numbers are already alarming

The outbreak has recorded 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths, according to the latest figures cited by health authorities. At the same stage of the epidemic, the current outbreak has produced far more cases and deaths than previous major Ebola crises, putting it on a trajectory that has alarmed international health agencies.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is already facing its largest Ebola outbreak on record, while the disease has spread across dozens of health zones in six provinces. WHO has described the outbreak as one of intense and sustained transmission, with its geographical footprint continuing to expand.

Contact tracing is falling behind

One of the biggest warning signs is the growing number of infections being discovered outside known chains of transmission.

While thousands of contacts have been identified and placed under follow-up, Africa CDC data suggests the number represents only a fraction of the people who should theoretically have been traced based on the scale of confirmed infections. That means health workers may be discovering new cases only after the virus has already had opportunities to spread further.

Experts consider strong contact tracing essential to containing Ebola. But the combination of conflict, population displacement and gaps in surveillance has made that task increasingly difficult across eastern Congo.

A difficult strain with no approved treatment

The outbreak is being driven by the Bundibugyo virus, a species of Ebola for which there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments specifically licensed for use against it.

Its symptoms can also be less severe in the early stages than those associated with some other Ebola viruses, potentially delaying treatment and reporting.

A potential boost to the response came this week when global health partners announced plans to send 70,000 doses of the Ervebo vaccine to Congo. The vaccine is not licensed for the Bundibugyo virus, but early laboratory and animal research has suggested it could offer some protection, with doses set aside for clinical trials and frontline workers.

The outbreak has reached new territory

The virus, initially concentrated around the Mongbwalu area in Ituri province, has since expanded into multiple provinces and health zones. Bas-Uele, previously unaffected by the outbreak, has also reported cases, adding to concerns about further geographical spread.

There have been signs of progress in some locations, but the wider outbreak continues to move through a vast and highly mobile population, including communities displaced by years of armed conflict.

Why so many patients are dying outside treatment centres

A particularly troubling trend is the number of Ebola deaths occurring in communities rather than inside treatment facilities. Late reporting, fear of isolation, misinformation and distrust of medical authorities are among the factors preventing some patients from seeking help early.

Health workers are also operating under enormous pressure. Some have faced attacks and hostility from frightened communities, while others have themselves contracted the virus. The United Nations has warned that response funding could run short within weeks, creating another challenge for efforts to slow the epidemic.

For now, the most worrying factor is that the outbreak has not yet peaked. With large gaps in detection and contact tracing, health authorities are racing to find infections earlier and rebuild trust in affected communities before the virus spreads even further.