'34 million dead in just hours, Europe will be destroyed': A simulation reveals what a US–Russia nuclear war would look like

A nuclear war between Russia and the United States could kill 34.1 million people and injure another 57.4 million within the first few hours, according to a 2019 simulation by researchers at Princeton University’s Science and Global Security (SGS) programme.

The simulation shows that the overall death toll would rise far higher due to long-term consequences such as radioactive fallout and global cooling of the Earth’s atmosphere.

The Princeton model, titled “Plan A,” study underscores that even so-called “low-yield” nuclear weapons can have catastrophic consequences.


“Plan A shows that there is no sane plan once a nuclear weapon is launched,” said Alicia Sanders-Zakre, Policy and Research Coordinator at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. “A better plan is to reject nightmare nuclear scenarios and support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.”

SGS estimates that more than 90 million people could be dead or injured within the first few hours of a large-scale nuclear conflict between the US and Russia.

The project aims to highlight the catastrophic consequences of existing US and Russian nuclear war plans. According to the researchers, the erosion of arms control agreements and the development of new nuclear capabilities have significantly raised the risk of nuclear escalation.

The four-minute audio-visual simulation is based on detailed assessments of nuclear force postures, war plans, weapon yields, and potential targets. It traces the progression of a conflict from tactical nuclear use to strategic exchanges and, finally, large-scale attacks on cities.

Casualty estimates are derived using data from NUKEMAP and include only immediate deaths caused by nuclear explosions. Deaths from radioactive fallout and other long-term effects are not included, meaning the actual toll would be substantially higher. The simulation was developed by Alex Wellerstein, Tamara Patton, Moritz Kütt, and Alex Glaser, with assistance from Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, and Zia Mian. Sound design was done by Jeff Snyder.

According to the simulation:

Russia fires a nuclear “warning shot” from a base near the city of Kaliningrad to halt a US-NATO advance.

NATO retaliates with a tactical nuclear weapon.

As the conflict escalates, Russia launches 300 nuclear warheads, while NATO responds with 180 warheads.

The study estimates 2.6 million casualties within just three hours.

With much of Europe devastated, NATO opts for a strategic nuclear strike before losing its weapons systems, triggering another wave of Russian attacks.

Russia and NATO then target each other’s 30 most populated cities, using five to ten warheads per city.