2026 Old Farmer’s Almanac weather forecast predicts a surprising winter across the US

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its outlook for the 2026-27 winter, offering an early look at where Americans could see colder temperatures, heavier snow and wetter conditions in the months ahead.

The broad forecast points to a relatively mild, near-normal winter across much of the United States. But the picture is far from uniform, with some regions expected to see colder temperatures and above-average snowfall, according to USA Today’s report on the newly released outlook.

The forecast comes after a punishing winter that brought a major January storm, blizzard conditions, a powerful polar vortex and unusually disruptive weather across large parts of the country.

A generally mild winter — but not everywhere

According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast cited by USA Today, much of the country could experience temperatures ranging from near normal to above normal during the 2026-27 winter season.

However, areas that endured some of the harshest conditions during last winter's massive January storm could again see periods of colder-than-average weather.

The Almanac's forecast also suggests a sharp divide in precipitation patterns across the country.

Much of the West is expected to have a wetter-than-normal winter, with parts of the South, Midwest and Florida also projected to receive above-average precipitation.

Meanwhile, some areas of the East, the Plains and the Southwest could experience drier-than-normal conditions, according to the forecast reported by USA Today.

Snowfall could also exceed normal levels in parts of the Northeast and Appalachians, sections of the West and Alaska.

Where snow and rain could be above normal

For many Americans, the biggest question is not simply whether winter will be cold, but where the heaviest snow and wet weather may develop.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac expects above-normal snowfall in several parts of the country, including areas of the Northeast and Appalachian region.

Parts of the western United States and Alaska could also see a snowier-than-usual season.

At the same time, wetter conditions are forecast across a wide stretch of the country, particularly in parts of the West and South.

USA Today noted that the competing Farmers’ Almanac has also issued a generally wet winter outlook, although its regional predictions differ.

That forecast calls for quick bursts of cold and snow across northern areas, while parts of the Northeast could face a complicated mix of rain, sleet, ice and heavy, wet snow.

Meteorologists urge caution over long-range forecasts

Despite the interest surrounding the annual almanac predictions, professional meteorologists generally remain cautious about placing too much confidence in detailed seasonal forecasts released months in advance.

USA Today reported that some forecasters have questioned the value of making highly specific winter predictions before important climate patterns become clearer.

Wyoming meteorologist Don Day, speaking earlier this month to Cowboy State Daily, said it was too soon to make detailed calls about the coming winter and suggested that a clearer picture may not emerge until mid- to late September.

The uncertainty is particularly significant this year because of a strengthening El Niño and questions about how it may interact with other major atmospheric patterns.

Still, the Old Farmer’s Almanac outlook does share some broad similarities with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecast for December 2026 through February 2027, USA Today reported.

That federal outlook also points to near-normal or above-normal temperatures across much of the country.

El Niño could complicate the 2026-27 winter forecast

The biggest wild card heading into winter may be El Niño.

The climate pattern, driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures in parts of the Pacific, can influence weather thousands of miles away and alter typical patterns of rain, snow and temperature across the United States.

But this year's developing El Niño is not the only factor forecasters are watching.

Its interaction with the polar vortex could be especially important.

As USA Today reported, disruptions to the polar vortex can sometimes allow extreme cold air to push southward into parts of the eastern United States.

That possibility makes the upcoming winter difficult to predict with confidence, particularly after the extraordinary weather events seen last season.

Last winter brought blizzards, a polar vortex and a deadly storm

The 2025-26 winter delivered some of the most severe weather of the season in dramatic fashion.

A major January winter storm affected more than 30 states and was blamed for more than 120 deaths, according to USA Today.

The event brought snow, ice, sleet and dangerously cold temperatures across a vast part of the country.

The Carolinas experienced blizzard conditions, while snow even reached parts of Florida.

The extreme weather did not end there.

A major storm system in March brought blizzard conditions to the Great Lakes, damaging winds and thunderstorms farther east, and unusually intense heat across parts of the West, USA Today reported.

Those events are a reminder that even a forecast calling for near-normal temperatures does not necessarily mean an uneventful winter.

Seasonal averages can still include short but intense outbreaks of extreme cold, major snowstorms or dangerous ice events.

More clarity may come later this fall

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has offered its first broad roadmap for the coming winter, but other major weather forecasters are still waiting for more climate data.

AccuWeather, for example, is not expected to release its long-range winter forecast until October, according to USA Today.

By then, forecasters may have a better understanding of how El Niño, marine heat waves and the polar vortex could shape weather patterns across the United States.

For now, the early signals suggest a winter that may be milder than last year's across much of the country — but potentially wetter, snowier or colder in specific regions.

And after last season's polar vortex, deadly winter storm and widespread blizzard conditions, Americans may have good reason to keep a close watch on how the forecast changes in the months ahead.