Elderly now a fifth of Japan population

TOKYO: One-fifth of Japan’s population now consists of people aged 65 or older, the nation’s latest census data show, a development that could threaten the world’s second-largest economy.

The nation, which has the world’s highest proportion of old people and lowest proportion of young people, has also seen its population shrink since peaking in ’04, according to final census figures for ’05.

Experts have long forecast that Japan’s ageing population and falling birth rate meant its population would decline — shrinking the economy and leaving fewer workers to support a growing number of pensioners — but the fall began two years earlier than initially forecast. Last year’s decline was the first since 1945, the final year of World War Two. The proportion of Japan’s 127m people who are 65 or older hit 21% last year, the highest ratio in the world The figure was up from 17.3% in 2000 when the previous census was conducted.

The ratio of people under 15 fell to 13.6%, the lowest since census-taking began in 1920 and also the world’s lowest. In addition, the proportion of people considered economically active — those aged between 15 and 64 — fell by 2.1 percentage points to 65.8% of the total.

The number of households consisting of elderly couples rose by 22.6% to 4.49m, while households of elderly people living alone soared by 27.5% to 3.86m. The figures are more bad news for economic planners already worried about how to fund ballooning pension requirements. Japan’s fertility rate — the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime — slipped to an all-time low of 1.25 in ’05. Demographers say a rate of 2.1 is needed to keep a population from falling.

In a possible sign of hope, however, births were up in August for the seventh straight month, rising by 3.1% from the same month last year.