Will your city have a White Christmas? Canada’s 2025 holiday forecast shows where snow is guaranteed, and where it isn’t

As Canadians prepare to celebrate Christmas 2025, the country faces a patchwork of winter weather that will determine who wakes up to a blanket of snow, and who may see just wet streets or bare lawns.

The Weather Network’s latest forecast reveals that while some cities are virtually guaranteed a white Christmas, others, including major urban centers, face only a slim chance of snow. Meteorologists warn that a coast-to-coast storm system, developing over BC and tracking eastward, could be the deciding factor in whether millions of Canadians experience the “perfect Christmas” of snow both on the ground and falling from the sky.

According to the Narcity website, a Christmas is officially classified as “white” when at least two centimetres of snow cover the ground at 7 am local time on December 25. A “perfect Christmas” occurs when snow is both on the ground and actively falling at the same time.

Expected Christmas storm

A storm system is forecast to move from coast to coast, potentially deciding whether snow will blanket the ground on Christmas morning.

BC is expected to start feeling the effects of this weather system on Sunday, December 21. Rain is expected along the coast, giving Vancouver, Victoria, and nearby areas a low chance of a white Christmas. However, colder temperatures in the interior and valleys increase the likelihood of snow.

Snowfall in the holiday season

This gives Kelowna and the surrounding areas a medium chance of a white Christmas, while cities like Prince George are virtually guaranteed to see snow. The Weather Network reports that the chances of a white Christmas are “much better” across the Prairies, thanks to significant snowfall earlier in the season and additional snow expected before Thursday, December 25.

Cold Arctic air across the Prairies will keep early snow from melting ahead of the holidays. A storm moving east of the Rockies could bring fresh snow to Calgary on Christmas Day. If it does, residents may experience a “perfect Christmas” with snow on the ground and falling from the sky.

The Weather Network confirms that Edmonton, Fort McMurray, Saskatoon, Regina, and Winnipeg are all guaranteed to have a white Christmas. Although Ontario has seen significant snowfall in November and December, it does not guarantee snow on the ground across the province on December 25.

The Weather Network predicts a white Christmas for northern Ontario, including cities such as Thunder Bay and Timmins. With heavy snowfall already accumulated in Ontario’s snowbelt regions near Lake Superior, Lake Huron, and Georgian Bay, the chances of a white Christmas are high.

Snow is also possible in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec on Tuesday, December 23, and Wednesday, December 24. This could raise the chances of a white Christmas in Ottawa, Montreal, and communities along the St. Lawrence River.

Quebec City is expected to have a high likelihood of a white Christmas.

Low chances of white Christmas

However, the likelihood of a white Christmas remains low in parts of southern Ontario, including Toronto, Hamilton, Windsor, and Kingston. The Weather Network also reports that the outlook for the Maritimes remains uncertain in the days leading up to December 25.

Currently, major cities such as Halifax and St. John’s have a low probability of a white Christmas.

However, the approaching storm could strengthen into a significant winter system on Christmas Eve as it moves into Atlantic Canada, leaving the possibility of last-minute snowfall for the region.