Liberals widen lead over Conservatives as NDP falls behind – Who do Canadians want as their next prime minister? New poll reveals surprising trends

Federal Liberals have expanded their lead over the Conservatives to nine points, according to the latest Nanos Research tracking poll. With just 12 days into the federal election campaign, Mark Carney's Liberals are now at 46%, ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 37%. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP) has slipped into single digits at 9%, marking a significant challenge for the party.

Are the Liberals gaining momentum?

The latest three-day rolling poll, conducted by Nanos Research from March 31 to April 2, shows the Liberals making steady gains. Over the last five days, their support has increased from 42% to 46%. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have remained relatively stable at 37%, but the NDP’s decline to 9% signals potential struggles for the party in maintaining its voter base.

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, highlighted this shift, saying, “The Liberals have experienced a notable rise, while the NDP’s descent into single digits marks a significant setback for a party that has previously served as Canada’s Official Opposition.”

How do the numbers break down across Canada?

Regionally, the Liberals continue to hold a strong lead in key provinces. In Ontario, they have gained another percentage point, reaching 51%, while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 37%. Quebec also sees Liberal dominance at 51%, with the Conservatives trailing at 18%—a three-point dip for Poilievre’s party.

However, the Prairies remain a Conservative stronghold. In this region, 64% of respondents back the Conservatives, while only 23% support the Liberals. This divide reflects long-standing political trends, where rural and western provinces tend to lean more Conservative.

Who do Canadians want as prime minister?

When asked who they prefer as prime minister, 50% of respondents chose Mark Carney, giving him a 17-point advantage over Pierre Poilievre, who sits at 33%. This gap has widened slightly, as Carney gained one percentage point, while Poilievre lost one. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains at 5%, showing little movement in public preference for his leadership.

According to Nanos, “Carney appears to be benefiting from a similar dynamic seen in the Ontario election, where Doug Ford was seen as a counter to Donald Trump. Right now, Carney is securing an electoral boost from this perception.”

Is there a gender gap in voter preference?

The poll also highlights a noticeable gender divide in voter preferences. Women are more likely to support the Liberals, with 52% of female respondents backing Carney’s party. In contrast, only 29% of women said they would vote Conservative. Among men, the Conservatives lead slightly with 45% support, while 40% of men back the Liberals.

What’s next in the 2025 federal election?

With the campaign still in its early stages, these numbers indicate a strong position for the Liberals, but the election is far from decided. The NDP’s struggles suggest a shift in progressive voters, potentially benefiting the Liberals. Meanwhile, the Conservatives will likely need to regain momentum, particularly in key battleground provinces like Ontario and Quebec.

Methodology

The Nanos Research tracking survey was conducted from March 31 to April 2, 2025, with a sample size of 1,285 respondents. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

As the campaign progresses, polling trends will continue to shift, making voter engagement and campaign strategies crucial in the weeks ahead.

FAQs:

Who is leading in the latest Nanos poll for the 2025 federal election?
Mark Carney’s Liberals lead with 46%, ahead of the Conservatives at 37%.

Who do Canadians prefer as their next prime minister?
Mark Carney holds a 17-point lead over Pierre Poilievre in voter preference.