Liberal to secure majority; Poilievre’s Conservatives have a chance, but only just, says poll survey

Canadian federal elections have entered the home stretch and the race is between the two major rivals - the current Liberal government and the Conservative Party. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, leading the Liberal charge, is enjoying a comfortable lead over his nearest rival, Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives, according to a CBC poll tracker.

There is a 77% probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the 343-member Parliament, and the party is projected to secure 192 seats, way above the majority mark of 172. While the CBC poll projects a comfortable majority for the incumbent Liberals, there is a 16% chance that it may become the single-largest party but fail to secure a majority on its own.

If the second scenario plays out, then PM Carney will have to seek the support of others like Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP). Even in the current government, the Liberals and NDP are in alliance as the former had failed to win a majority in the 2021 elections.


But the CBC poll also suggests that all is not lost for the Conservatives and there is a 5% probability of the party winning the most seats but it will not get a majority. There is a miniscule 1% chance of Poilievre leading his party to a majority in the 2025 polls.

The Conservatives are projected to secure only 122 seats, a significant 70 seats behind the Liberals, and way below the halfway mark of 172.

According to the CBC poll tracker, the Liberals will most likely secure 167-210 seats. This number could also fall to a minimum of 150 and go up to a maximum of 223. The Conservatives are likely to secure 107-140 seats, with a minimum of 97 seats and a maximum of 157.

If the Conservatives achieve the maximum projection of 157 seats and the Liberals secure the minimum of 150 seats, both parties not getting a majority will result in a hung Parliament. However, the poll tracker suggests only a 5% chance of this occurring.

What the CBC poll tracker data has in store

Boosting Carney’s chances of becoming the Prime Minister of Canada again, the data indicates the Liberal Party holding a significant lead with 42.7% of the vote, despite a slight decrease of 0.4%. The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, trails with 38.3%, showing no change. The NDP, Bloc Québécois, Green Party, and People's Party all register lower percentages, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois showing minor increases.

There are 343 seats in the House of Commons, one for each electoral district.

A detailed regional breakdown reveals the Liberals are poised for a decisive victory. In British Columbia, they lead with 45.1% compared to the Conservatives' 38.1%. Alberta, however, remains a Conservative stronghold with 58.7% support, though the Liberals still garner 29.7%.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives hold a significant lead at 48.5% to the Liberals' 34.6%. Ontario heavily favors the Liberals with 48.4% against the Conservatives' 38.7%.

Quebec sees a closer race, with the Liberals at 39.7% and the Bloc Québécois at 25.7%, while the Conservatives trail at 24.5%. Finally, in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals dominate with 53.3% compared to the Conservatives' 36.1%.

The Liberal surge, initially triggered by Mark Carney's leadership, has proven resilient, even amidst the Conservatives' attempts to regain lost ground.

The New Democrats, despite a minor uptick in support, are projected to suffer significant seat losses, potentially falling below their current standing. The Bloc Québécois, while recovering some ground in Quebec, remains a regional force, unlikely to significantly impact the national outcome.