Is Hollywood dying? Trump’s 100% film tariff plan sparks global tensions, local hopes

Hollywood faces a high-stakes rewrite

As part of his ongoing economic nationalism, U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, according to his post on Truth Social published May 5. The proposed tariff, intended to protect domestic filmmaking and curb outsourcing, has sent shockwaves through the global film industry.
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However, a White House spokesperson told Reuters that no final decision has been made and that all options are being explored to meet the president’s directive to strengthen Hollywood.

Hollywood’s identity crisis

In 2024, the U.S. domestic box office dipped to $8.56 billion, down 4% from 2023, reflecting pandemic aftershocks, labor strikes, and changing audience tastes. Meanwhile, studios increasingly outsource production to countries like Canada, the U.K., and Australia to benefit from favorable tax regimes and lower costs.


Australia’s Gold Coast alone has generated over $2 billion for its economy and 20,000+ jobs since 2015 through U.S. film shoots.

The economics behind the drama

$310 billion: Total revenue of the U.S. film industry in 2025
2.4 million: Number of jobs supported
$24.1 billion: Film export revenue in 2025
$16.8 billion: Trade surplus from film and media exports
While the U.S. remains a global cultural powerhouse, international films made up roughly 20% of U.S. box office revenue in 2024—enough to spur protectionist instincts in Washington.

Industry split: applause and alarm

Supporters say the tariff—if enacted—could bring jobs and shoots back to U.S. cities, reversing years of creative outsourcing. Critics warn of higher production costs, retaliatory tariffs, and disruption to global co-productions, especially for platforms like Netflix, Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery, which saw stock volatility after the initial news.

Revenue trends in U.S. film (2020–2025)

The U.S. film industry has experienced notable fluctuations in revenue from 2020 to 2025, driven by the pandemic, industry strikes, and shifts in audience preferences:
2020: $2.1 billion (↓81% from 2019) – The pandemic led to widespread theater closures and delayed film releases, causing a sharp decline in box office revenue.

2021: $4.5 billion (↑113% from 2020) – As theaters reopened, there was a resurgence in moviegoing, though still below pre-pandemic levels.

2022: $7.4 billion (↑64% from 2021) – The industry continued its recovery, driven by successful films like Top Gun: Maverick.

2023: $8.9 billion (↑21% from 2022) – A strong year for the box office, with releases such as Barbie and Oppenheimer driving performance.

2024: $8.56 billion (↓4% from 2023) – Despite a strong start, the year faced challenges, including strikes, leading to a slight decline in revenue.

2025: $1.07 billion (as of March 5) – The year started with a 9.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024, indicating positive momentum.

The global angle

The proposal comes amid rising scrutiny over Hollywood’s offshoring practices. While the U.S. exports billions in film content annually, it also benefits from global partnerships. Co-productions often involve multiple countries, complicating the definition of “foreign-made” in a borderless entertainment landscape.

Looking ahead

The fate of the proposed tariff remains uncertain. While the administration floats it as a tool to bolster local jobs and creativity, the real-world execution could get mired in bureaucracy and geopolitical backlash.

In a world where storytelling is global, will a hard border help—or hurt—Hollywood?