Heatwaves and wildfires: Canada’s summer forecast reads like a climate horror story

Canada is set to endure a hotter-than-average summer, with nearly every region, especially Ontario and the Maritimes, bracing for warmer-than-normal conditions, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s June 10 seasonal outlook.

“Expect temperatures hovering well above seasonal norms,” warned meteorologist Jennifer Smith, noting certain regions face “major heatwaves,” while others may see persistent mild warmth that cumulatively “nudges the stats.”

Only a few coastal spots in BC and the Northwest Territories might enjoy slightly cooler summers.

For families and communities

This means long spells of sunny, sweat-soaked afternoons and, for many, the return of smoky skies. Scientists confirm that from 1948 to 2016, average summer temperatures in Canada have climbed nearly 1.8 °C, about double the global average, and climate change is the main driver.

Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment Canada, cautions that the combination of dry winters, diminished spring rains, and hotter weather could fuel severe wildfires as early as July and intensify in August.

Wildfire activity is already surging: as of June 11, nearly 1,900 wildfires have burned roughly 3.5 million hectares, prompting at least 32,000 evacuations and claiming two lives.

What does NASA say?

Satellite data from NASA estimates four times more “hot spots” were detected this June than average, making it the second-worst fire season start since 2012, only behind 2023. The smoky impacts are widespread: air quality alerts have been issued in Ontario, Quebec, and even parts of the US, with orange-tinted sunsets visible as far east as Europe.

On the ground, families, farmers, and fire crews are learning to adapt.

In Alberta’s wildfire-affected communities, residents speak of alternating pride in their resilience and growing anxiety. And in urban centers, people monitor the Air Quality Health Index more closely, opting to stay indoors or wear masks.

What Canadians can do:

• Track regional weather and air-quality alerts via the WeatherCAN app.
  
• Prepare for possible heat waves, especially in Atlantic, Quebec, and Ontario.
  
• Stay fire-smart: Droughts can ignite fires from simple sparks.
  

Support local firefighting efforts and advocate for proactive wildfire management.