Carney’s Liberals in pole position as Canada set to vote under Trump's shadow

As Canadians prepare to cast their votes in Monday's federal election, a POLITICO/Focaldata poll reveals that Canada is grappling with a profound distrust of its closest neighbour. One of the country's main political parties, the Conservative Party, is struggling to escape the pull of US President Donald Trump's polarizing presence, while the Liberals, currently in power with the help of allies, are surging ahead.

Their poll indicates that approximately 75% of Canadians hold unfavorable views of Trump, with nearly half perceiving the US as a hostile power, which is a significant shift from the previous perception of the United States.

The poll also reveals that 40.5% of Canadians support the Liberals, compared to 37.5% for the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois maintains a strong presence, with 28% support, while the Conservatives follow at 22%.


This rise in patriotic sentiments can be a big advantage for the Liberals as, under the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Carney, they have seized the moment, positioning themselves as the wall against Trump's threats and tariffs. Carney and his party have positioned themselves as the steady hand and the experienced leader capable of keeping the Canadian ship stable in the turbulent international waters.

"It's not just about politics anymore," says a voter. "It's about our identity, our sovereignty. I never thought I'd be this scared of what's happening south of the border."

Trump's recent statements and attitude, including his desire to "annex" Canada, have sent shockwaves through the country, triggering a wave of patriotic fervor.

"He doesn't understand us," said Mark Carney during a campaign rally in Montreal, "We are not a bargaining chip. We are not a state."

The Trump factor has emerged as a defining issue, especially among Liberal voters, even though the cost of living is still a major problem. Almost half of Canadians now agree with the previously unimaginable idea that the United States is a "hostile power".

"I've always been a Conservative," says an oil worker. "But this time, I'm not so sure. Poilievre's playing with fire, and I'm worried we're all going to get burned."

A similar type of dilemma can be seen in other Conservatives, too, creating a new challenge for the Conservative Party. Their leaders have been campaigning for domestic issues like rising housing prices, immigration, and healthcare, but seem to lack answers for international challenges like these.

As the election approaches, who is best equipped to safeguard Canada's interests in an unpredictable geopolitical arena remains the central question for many voters.