Carney dominates national polls according to Nanos Research, while Poilievre fights to re-enter Parliament

As Members of Parliament return to their constituencies for the summer recess, new polling data reveals a sharp shift in Canada’s federal political landscape.

According to a four-week rolling average by Nanos Research, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is now supported by 45.2 per cent of Canadians. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, trail significantly at 30.8 per cent, a 13-point gap. The New Democratic Party (NDP), under interim leader Don Davies, sits at 12.1 per cent support.

Growing momentum for Liberals

The data reflects growing momentum for the Liberals just two months after a closely contested federal election. In that vote, the Conservatives had gained 24 seats and secured 41.3 per cent of the popular vote, their strongest showing since 1988. However, recent trends suggest a realignment among voters, particularly blue-collar Canadians.

“Part of the election coalition for the Poilievre Conservatives included blue-collar, working voters,” said Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist of Nanos Research. “Looks like some are returning to the New Democrats.”

Public sentiment on leadership also appears to be shifting. In the latest preferred prime minister polling, Carney is favored by 52.1 per cent of respondents, compared to just 23.2 per cent for Poilievre. That represents a sharp decline for the Conservative leader, who has dropped nearly 10 points since the week before the election.

“Part of the current Carney advantage results from the disarray of the opposition,” Nanos said.

Poilievre, who lost his own seat in the election, is aiming to re-enter Parliament through a byelection scheduled for August 18 in the rural Alberta riding of Battle River–Crowfoot. Prime Minister Carney called the byelection on June 30 following the resignation of incumbent Conservative MP Damien Kurek, who had secured over 80 per cent of the vote in April and stepped down “to allow Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre to run.”

Battle River–Crowfoot is a long-time Conservative stronghold, with the party regularly capturing more than 70 per cent of the vote since 2000.

The Liberal surge appears driven in part by concerns over US economic policy under President Donald Trump, and Carney’s pitch to “Trump-proof” Canada’s economy. Many voters say they are seeking steady leadership on global affairs and domestic cost-of-living challenges.

As of now, Carney’s Liberals are capitalizing on their lead, but with the upcoming byelection, Poilievre will have a high-profile opportunity to reassert his leadership.