War gloom over US IPO market; even SpaceX may not save the day

The companies that typically make up the backbone of the US initial public offering market are eyeing the Iran war for signs volatility could boil over and wreck their plans. For banks, there's a ray of hope - that SpaceX's potential blockbuster listing could still go ahead, and make their whole year.

After a first quarter marked by stop-and-start activity for IPOs, talk has turned to the implications of the raging conflict and the lingering effect of artificial intelligence scares. No wonder many listing candidates are sitting on their hands as a possible IPO for billionaire Elon Musk's rocket company, which could come as soon as June and dwarf every other debut, takes shape.

"The situation in Iran has thrown a wrench into things and AI disruption has been pronounced this year," said Evan Riley, Americas head of equity capital markets at BNP Paribas SA.


"You've had some hiccups in terms of withdrawn deals - you'll see the complexion of IPOs change a bit." "But if you have mega IPOs come then that changes the entire year because you can easily have a full year of IPO volume in one deal," he said in an interview.