US says more oil is leaving Middle East. Is it really?

LAUNCESTON, Australia: Just how much crude oil is leaving the Strait of Hormuz? U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims almost nine million barrels per day, but the companies that track vessel movements say at best it is about half this volume.

The amount of crude leaving the Middle East via the narrow chokepoint matters, as it's this oil that goes to ​Asia, the top energy-consuming region that has been hardest hit by the fallout since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Wright said on social media platform X on August 12 that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd." He further said that adding in an "additional 5-7 million bpd leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil ‌flows are currently averaging approximately 15 ⁠million bpd."

This ⁠would take total exports from the Middle East to around 75% of the volumes prior to the start of the conflict, and if Wright's numbers are accurate it would mean that the oil market is not nearly as tight as most analysts believe.


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The problem is ​that Wright's numbers don't tally with those provided by several vessel tracking services.

Wright didn't specify the exact time period for his seven-day average, but data from commodity analysts Kpler shows crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz for ​the week beginning July 27 at 2.77 million bpd. This drops to 1.74 million bpd for the week beginning August 3, and even the best week since the start of the conflict saw only 6.98 million bpd leave in the seven days starting June 29.

What of total exports from the Middle East? This would include cargoes leaving from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port in the Red Sea, as well as shipments from Oman and ​the Fujairah facility in the United Arab Emirates.

Kpler data shows crude shipments of 9.53 million bpd in the week beginning August 3, and ⁠a four-week ‌average of 12.26 million bpd.

Data from LSEG Oil Research, filtered to show only cargoes that are being loaded, have been loaded, are underway or have been discharged, shows Middle East ​crude exports of 9.33 million bpd ​for the first 12 days of August, down from 12.35 million bpd in July.

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What the tracking data shows is that total exports from the Middle East are ⁠still well below pre-conflict levels, with Kpler data showing shipments of 18.7 million bpd in the three months until the ​end of February.

If Wright's numbers are accurate, it would also be logical for import data to show rising arrivals from the Middle East.

There was a spike in crude imports from the Middle East in July, with Kpler showing arrivals of 13.27 million bpd, of which 10.86 million bpd was discharged at Asian ports. This was up from the 9.26 million bpd of imports from the Middle East in April, which was the lowest in Kpler data going back to 2013, but the July number was still well short of the 18.71 million bpd average for the three months leading up to the start of the Iran war. The July number was also because a large number of tankers managed to exit the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which lasted for about three weeks after it was struck in mid-June.

MIND THE GAP

What the vessel-tracking data shows is a gap of between 3 million and 5 million bpd between what they can see and ‌what Wright says is being shipped from the Middle East.

There are three main possibilities to explain the gap.

1. The numbers provided by Wright and his department are correct and the tracking services are missing some clandestine shipments that are being done out of sight.

2. Wright and his department genuinely believe their numbers, but they are miscounting shipments. 3. ​Wright knows his numbers are ​inaccurate but disseminates the information anyway because it suits the ⁠political narrative of his boss, U.S. President Donald Trump, who is trying to spin that the war is going well.

The first possibility could be resolved by Wright sharing how he knows what he knows, by providing vessel names and cargo details such as the amount, the load and discharge ports.

The tracking services could then compare data and work out where any discrepancy lies.

The second possibility is by far the ​most likely, and involves the U.S. Navy double-counting some exports that undergo ship-to-ship transfers.

The third possibility is more disturbing, and doubts will remain as long as Wright doesn't provide evidence, especially given the Trump administration's track record of misinformation, inaccurate claims and delusional thinking about the state of the conflict.

It will also be possible to simply wait for a few weeks to see the import figures from the various countries that buy crude from the Middle East.

If 15 million bpd is genuinely leaving the region, then this will show up in arrival figures over the next six weeks, given the time taken for tankers to travel to destinations across the world.


The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.