US sanctions policy to determine Venezuela's oil production outlook, Goldman says

Venezuela's oil production outlook this ‍year will depend on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves, Goldman ⁠Sachs analysts said, after U.S. President Donald Trump deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The U.S. snatched Maduro from ‌Caracas at ‌the weekend and Trump said Washington would take control of ‌the oil-producing nation.

"We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short-run from Venezuela depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a January 4 note.

Goldman's 2026 ‌oil ‍price forecasts remained unchanged with Brent's ‍average at $56 and West Texas Intermediate at $52 ‌a barrel while Venezuela's 2026 oil production is forecast to stay flat at 900,000 barrels per day.


However, Venezuela's production may rise in the long run, which adds downside risks to the oil price forecast for ‍2027 and beyond, the analysts said.

Venezuela produced about 3 million bpd at ‍its peak ⁠in the mid-2000s ⁠and holds about a fifth of global proven oil reserves.

"Any recovery in production would likely be gradual and require substantial investment," the analysts said.

"We estimate $4/bbl of downside to 2030 oil prices in a scenario where Venezuela crude production rises to 2mb/d in 2030."