This is how China's regions fare in the fake GDP data stakes

When it comes to the reliability of their economic data, not all of China’s regions are equal.

After a spate of admissions to fabricating data, doubts about the accuracy of provincial-level figures are throwing a shadow on the remarkable stability of national output.

As a result, analysts are crunching the numbers again, including Shanghai-based Meng Xiangjuan and Li Tong at SWS Research Ltd.


Chongqing -- a megapolis in the west that has province-like status -- probably has the least credible economic data among all the nation’s regions, considering the reported fiscal revenues and debt, their research suggests.

Click here for more on the remarkable stability of China GDP data

Hebei province, which neighbors Beijing, has much more convincing data, according to their analysis. The capital itself ranks near the bottom of the list in reliability.

Here’s SWS’s scoring of the credibility of local data -- the lower the score, the better the data:

Province Score Province Score Province Score Province Score Hebei 11 Shanghai 21 Fujian 27 Gansu 35 Jiangxi 11 Anhui 21 Sichuan 29 Beijing 39 Shaanxi 12 Jilin 22 Hubei 30 Tianjin 40 Liaoning 14 Ningxia 23 Heilongjiang 31 Shanxi 40 Zhejiang 16 Henan 24 Xinjiang 31 Jiangsu 45 Hunan 17 Guangxi 24 Qinghai 33 Chongqing 46 Shandong 18 Yunnan 25 Hainan 34 Guangdong 20 Inner Mongolia 27 Guizhou 34
The analysis rests on spotting the difference between local authorities’ reporting of fiscal revenue before and after a 2016 tax reform that made it harder to inflate income. A second factor focuses on what local governments say about their debt obligations, with some potentially under-reporting what they owe.

The head of the national statistics bureau said Thursday the government is is examining cases of fake economic figures produced by some regions, though fraud hasn’t impaired the quality of national statistics.

Inner Mongolia and Liaoning are confirmed to have fudged data in recent years, and the city of Tianjin has been cited in local media as overestimating its own output.