Russian crude exports slide on drone strikes and Trump's tariffs

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil export pipelines and a doubling of US tariffs on goods imported from India appear to be hitting Moscow’s crude flows.

Weekly crude shipments from Russian ports fell by 320,000 barrels a day in the week to Aug. 24, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Flows dropped to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels a day, pushed down by reduced loadings at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The drop left four-week average crude shipments little changed, with seaborne cargoes averaging 3.06 million barrels a day.

Ukraine has intensified attacks targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure, hitting a major pumping station on the nation’s export pipeline network and several refineries.

The Unecha pump station, on the Druzhba pipeline system close to Russia’s border with Belarus, was targeted by Ukrainian drones twice in the past two weeks. The attacks have halted piped crude deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia and appear to have hampered shipments from the port of Ust-Luga on Russia’s Baltic coast. The Baltic Pipeline System 2, which carries Russian and Kazakh crude to the port, begins at Unecha.

Storage tanks at the port mean that any halt in deliveries may not result in an immediate drop in shipments, but only two tankers loaded Russian crude at Ust-Luga last week, down from four during the previous seven days and six in the week to Aug. 10, the tracking data and shipping reports show.

Recent strikes on the Volgograd and Novoshakhtinsk refineries helped to push Russia’s crude processing down by about 700,000 barrels a day in the third week of August from the average during the last week of July. That ought to free up more crude for export, if processing is halted for long periods.

Separately, President Donald Trump’s doubling of US import tariffs on goods from India to 50%, imposed because of New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil, appears to hitting the flow of Moscow’s crude to the south Asian nation, though it’s unclear how long the trend will persist.

Shipments heading to India have fallen by more than 500,000 barrels a day over the past two months and even if all the tankers with no confirmed destination end up discharging at Indian ports, flows would still be down by 300,000 barrels a day, or 17%, since late June.

The tariff increase could yet be reversed or paused, but refiners are planning to trim purchases of Russian crude in the coming weeks, a modest concession to Washington’s pressure, but also a signal that New Delhi doesn’t plan to cut ties with Moscow. Nevertheless, Russia sees the discounts it offers Indian refiners as big enough to keep them buying its oil.

The US president has repeatedly said he would increase sanctions against Moscow if it failed to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, most recently on Friday, but the threats have so far come to nothing.

Trump’s recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska saw the Russian leader conceding little, but getting another stay of execution on threatened US secondary tariffs on China. Chinese refiners have stepped up purchases of discounted cargoes relinquished by India.

Crude Shipments

A total of 25 tankers loaded 19.07 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Aug. 24, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 21.3 million barrels on 28 ships the previous week.

Crude flows in the period to Aug. 24 stood at about 3.06 million barrels a day on a four-week average basis, up by 20,000 barrels a day from the period to Aug. 17. The four-week average smooths out big swings in weekly numbers, giving a clearer picture of underlying trends in crude flows. Using more volatile weekly figures, shipments fell by about 320,000 barrels to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels a day. The drop in weekly flows was driven by fewer cargoes being loaded at Ust-Luga.

In addition, there was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude during the week from Ust-Luga and one from Novorossiysk.

Export Value

The gross value of Moscow’s exports fell by about $110 million, or 9%, to $1.11 billion in the week to Aug. 24 from $1.22 billion the previous week. The drop in flows was compounded by slightly lower average prices for Russia’s crudes.

Urals cargoes from the Baltic fell by about $0.30 a barrel to average $54.88 a barrel, while shipments from the Black Sea fell by $0.10 a barrel to $55.43 a barrel respectively during the week. Both were the lowest since mid-June.

The price of key Pacific grade ESPO moved in the opposite direction, rising by $1.80 to average $63.56 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were virtually unchanged at $64.71 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a four-week average basis, the export price of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic was down by $0.90 a barrel, while Black Sea cargoes were down by $0.80 a barrel, averaging $56.93 a barrel and $57.30 a barrel respectively, while Pacific ESPO was down by about $0.40 a barrel to $63.88 a barrel.

Using this measure, the value of exports was down by about $10 million from the period to Aug. 17, averaging about $1.28 billion a week.

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 2.62 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Aug. 24, down from 2.67 million barrels a day in the period to Aug. 17. That’s the lowest since February.

The figures include about 190,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 30,000 barrels a day on tankers yet to signal a destination.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Aug. 24 rose to about 370,000 barrels a day, the highest in almost two months. Shipments to Syria averaged about 70,000 barrels a day.