IEA lowers global oil-demand growth forecast for 2024

Global oil demand will grow slower than anticipated in 2024 following a first-quarter drop in developed economies due to a mild winter and a declining diesel car fleet, the IEA said Wednesday.

Demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, or 140,000 fewer than forecast in the International Energy Agency's previous monthly report.

Global demand is forecast to reach 103 million bpd for the year, it said.


Demand in OECD countries contracted by 70,000 barrels per day in the first three months of the year, the Paris-based organisation reported.

"A historically mild winter acted as an additional weight on OECD heating fuel use," the report said.

Demand was also affected by "structural headwinds such as rising vehicle efficiencies and the declining share of diesel in the car fleet", it added.

"These drags are especially evident in Europe, but gasoil (diesel) demand was weaker than expected in several other key markets."

China, the world's second biggest economy, is set to lead demand gains with growth of 510,000 bpd in 2024 and 360,000 bpd in 2025, though that is much lower than the 1.7 million bpd recorded last year.

The IEA's forecast for 2025 remain relatively unchanged, with global demand expected to grow by 1.2 million bpd to 104 million bpd.