Higher trade policy uncertainty, new tariffs may weigh on global trade: WTO

Increased trade policy uncertainty and prospects of new tariffs could weigh on global trade in the medium term, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said Wednesday.

As per the organisation’s Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade appeared to remain steady in the fourth quarter of 2024 and looked set to continue growing in the first months of 2025.

“However, increased trade policy uncertainty and the prospect of new tariffs could weigh on trade in the medium term,” it said.


US President Donald Trump has announced new tariffs against countries, including China and Canada. These countries also have announced retaliatory duties, leading to a trade war.

In the third quarter of 2024, the latest period for which WTO data is available, the volume of world merchandise trade continued to recover from the trade slump of 2023, growing 3.3% on-year.

“European exports and imports were much weaker than anticipated, while Asian exports and North American imports exceeded expectations,” it said.

As per the report, indicators signified that merchandise trade was above trend with accelerating growth. However, rising trade policy uncertainty could have temporarily boosted trade as businesses and consumers frontload imports ahead of potential measures, possibly reducing demand later in the year.

“As a result, the barometer index should be interpreted with caution,” the WTO warned.