Global goods trade is likely to fall in 2023 amid rise in risks

Global goods trade will shrink next year in a downturn reminiscent of previous recessions, Oxford Economics said, in a worrying forecast for Asia's export-dependent economies and beyond.

Goods trade will decline 0.2% next year, with contractions likely starting from the final months of this year, lead economist Adam Slater wrote Friday in a report. That's a substantial revision down from June, when Oxford forecast that the global goods trade would grow 3.4% in 2023.

The forecast is among the worst trade outlooks yet for next year and coincides with a growing number of Asian nations reporting shrinking exports. South Korea said Thursday its exports fell the most in two-and-a-half years from a year earlier in November, dragged down by an economic slowdown in China and cooling demand for semiconductors.


China's exports and imports both unexpectedly fell in October and those declines are expected to have deepened in November, according to forecasts for data due to be released next week.