China’s exports jump most in a year, boosting growth outlook

China’s exports jumped the most in a year and declines in imports narrowed, adding to evidence of stabilisation in the economy. Stocks rallied.

Overseas shipments rose 11.5% in dollar terms in March from a year earlier, compared with a 25% slump in February, when factories and offices were closed for a weeklong holiday.

Imports extended declines to 17 months with a 7.6% drop. The trade surplus decreased to $29.9 billion, the least in a year.

The export rebound may suggest China’s economy fared better than expected in the first quarter, with data due on Friday expected to show a 6.7% expansion for the period. The increase in shipments may indicate more than seasonal factors and could show a pick up in demand, said Iris Pang, a greater China economist at Natixis.

“This is quite encouraging indeed,” she said. Still, it’s too soon to conclude that the worst is over for the nation’s exporters, and “we need more evidence to confirm that the whole manufacturing sector is on track again.”

The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1.4% to close at a threemonth high, paring this year’s decline to 13%. Shares also gained from Hong Kong to Tokyo.

“The steep decline in trade is coming to an end, but whether such a recovery can be sustained is still questionable,” said Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank in Shanghai. The data “reflect improving external demand, a rebound in commodity prices and recovering domestic demand.”