Brexit is not the biggest risk for EU: Citibank

By Lianna Brinded

NEW YORK: The “single biggest risk on the European political landscape” is happening this year, and it is not Britain leaving the European Union, say analysts at Citi.

Tina Fordham and her team at Citi told clients in a note that while Britons voting to leave the 28-nation bloc poses a problem for the EU, it is actually the high risk of Italy having its own referendum that poses a huge threat to the political landscape (emphasis ours): “Hungary (on EU refugee quotas) and Italy (on constitutional reform) will likely have referendums in H2 of 2016."

The latter is probably the single biggest risk on the European political landscape this year among non-UK issues, as PM Matteo Renzi’s political future may be tied to the outcome of the referendum.

“We do not expect any other In/Out referendums on EU/Eurozone membership in an EU country in the near-term, despite rising EU and Euroscepticism across many countries." “The reasons are that electorates cannot directly trigger EU referendums in most countries,” the note has stated.