Bitcoin up 13% in a week as markets bet on Trump win

A Bitcoin rally is grabbing the spotlight in part because some investors view the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

The digital asset is up about 13% in the past seven days, well ahead of a global stock gauge and gold. Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller cited crypto as among the indicators that markets are pricing in a win for the former president.

Trump has vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet as he duels for votes in a tight race against Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris. His embrace of the sector led to Bitcoin's classification as a so-called Trump trade - one of a series of wagers predicated on his return to the White House.


The Bitcoin advance came alongside shifts in prediction markets, controversial platforms of disputed informational value where people can bet on election outcomes. Trump's odds on the Polymarket platform have jumped to 60%, while Harris has dropped to 40%. On PredictIt, Trump's chances are at 54%, compared with 50% for Harris.

"Excitement in prediction markets is leading to high levels of implied volatility and a rally in spot-Bitcoin prices," said Arisa Toyosaki, co-founder of Cega, a crypto derivatives service provider. "The recent significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are also fueling the rally."

Net inflows into a group of a dozen US Bitcoin ETFs have topped $1.6 billion since Oct. 11 inclusive. The token was little changed at about $67,300 as of 9:32 a.m. Thursday in London, compared with March's record of $73,798.