After ash cloud, uncertainty for airline industry

BRUSSELS:Thousands of flights are crisscrossing Europe, but things are far from normal:The cloud of volcanic ash and the nearly weeklong shutdown of air traffic haveadded another element of uncertainty to the hassles of flying.

Therehas been debate over the correct response by airlines and governments to the asheven as the world watches Iceland for any signs of another bigeruption.

Just as the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and otherattempts to blow up planes heralded a new era of ultra-tight security atairports, the eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull (pronounceday-yah-FYAH-lah-yer-kuhl) volcano that grounded much of Europe could prove to bea game-changer in the history of aviation - or at least keep things extremelyunsettled for a long time.

Some people are saying they'll think twiceabout taking a plane if trains - slower but more reliable - are availableinstead.

Harry Howelber, a 28-year-old telecommunications operator inParis, said: ``I'd just be afraid of flying into a cloud.''

Expertsnoted the profound psychological impact the ash cloud has had ontravelers.

``There have been a number of occasions when air travelhas been impacted by people's fears of terrorist events or wars,'' said DavidHenderson, spokesman for the Association of European Airlines. ``But it's rarefor natural phenomena to cause the same reaction.''

Travel industryobservers, however, do not believe the volcano will affect the way Americanstravel to Europe.

``I don't think they'll be frightened of flying,''said longtime guidebook writer Arthur Frommer. ``Look how fast we returned toflying after Sept. 11, even though the possibility of terrorists getting on aplane continued.''

The International Air Transport Association notedthat passenger numbers rebounded several years after 2001.

Frommersaid he and his wife are about to book tickets for a trip to Scotland. ``Here Iam planning to go to Europe on Aug. 16, and it never once crossed my mind,'' headded.

Rudy Maxa, host of public television's travel show ``RudyMaxa's World,'' agreed that the disruption wouldn't affect flight bookings,particularly if people weren't personally affected, because Americans alwayswant to travel to Europe.

``I think it's really a one-off. I don'tthink it will be a game-changer,'' Maxa said.

AdamAnderson, public relations director of Expedia.com, said the site ``saw a (notunexpected) spike in cancellations for the week of April 15-20'' - the week theeruption began.

``We have not, however, seen a correlative dropoff inbookings to the top 20 European destinations, when examined on a week-over-weekbasis,'' he said. ``There was a drop in London bookings, but not elsewhere. Sothe net is that the issue seems to have impacted existing flights, but not newones.''

Travelocity senior editor Genevieve Shaw Brown said it wastoo early to gauge the long-term impact because bookings to Western Europe aremade, on average, three to four months in advance.

``People travelingin the near future have had these plans in place for quite some time,'' shesaid.

``However, time and time again, travelers prove they
CharlesSchmitt, a corporate travel manager at Classic Travel Service in New York, saidhis clients are eager to get back onto planes.

``They've got businessto do. They've got to get to their various appointments,'' Schmittsaid.

But Ishfaq Ahmad, an owner of Sunline Travel Inc., a small NewYork agency, said his business is down about 50 percent. ``It's very slow,'' hesaid. ``We are getting very few calls at the moment. People are stillscared.''

The eruption occurred against the backdrop of an economicslump that has ravaged the aviation industry. More people view flying as apainful ordeal of annoying security checks, shrinking leg room, deliberateoverbooking and increasingly awful food.

Financial pressures haveforced airlines to keep costs down _ resulting in bare bones in-flight servicethat has helped win coach class the unflattering nickname ``cattleclass.''

Experts say the chaos created by the ash plume could send afurther chill through an already beleaguered industry.

``I doubt thata situation that lasts 10 days to two weeks will bring down any establishedairline (but) there will be some lasting effects,'' said Howard Wheeldon, seniorstrategist at BGC Partners in London. ``Airlines are still weak, and this willhave made them a lot weaker.''

Ina note published by London international affairs think tank Chatham House,authors Vanessa Rossi and Will Jackson said airlines would likely be forced tooffer discounted air travel in the short run, something that would bite intotheir ``already tight profit margins and revenues for touristresorts.''

``In the worst-case scenario, in which the volcanic riskbubbles on, intermittently shutting down North European air space through therest of the year, there would almost certainly be no economic recovery in Europein 2010,'' the note said.

Maxa agreed that the airlines might offersome deals, but only in the ``very short term.''

Compounding theuncertainty is the possibility Eyjafjallajokull - or an even more powerfulvolcano nearby called Katla - could erupt again and again, making the worldrelive the whole crisis.

The two volcanos are side by side, and whilescientists say it's difficult to predict when a volcano will erupt, the lastthree times that Eyjafjallajokull went off, Katla did as well. Katla typicallyawakens every 80 years or so. It last exploded in 1918.

Aviationauthorities remain deeply divided about the proper response to a massiveeruption. Many now say the decision to ground flights was an overreaction:Blanket closure of airspace led to the cancellation of more than 100,000flights.

European governments and civil aviation authorities havedefended their decision to ground fleets and close the skies against heatedaccusations by airline chiefs that the moves were based on flawed data orunsubstantiated fears.

The European Union has already moved urgentlyto implement a major reform of the continental air traffic management system,whose fragmentation has been blamed for the uncoordinated response to the ashcloud.

EU spokeswoman Helen Kearns said Thursday the crisis hadexposed serious flaws that must be corrected quickly. ``Consumers and businesseshave paid a high price over the past few days for a fragmented patchwork ofairspaces,'' she said.

The EU has 27 national air traffic controlnetworks, 60 air traffic centers and hundreds of approach centers and towers.The airspace is a jigsaw puzzle of more than 650 sectors, and any realstreamlining of the system will require at least another five to 10years.

Still, most analysts said they expected the aftershocks tosubside gradually, as they did in the United States after9/11.

``Inevitably, when people make a decision and the events of thepast week are fresh in their minds, they may think twice about flying and mayopt to take the train rather than fly,'' said Richard Maslen of Airliner World,a British industry publication. ``That's what happened after 9/11. But I can'tsee it as being a problem in the long-term because people will just not want togive up the mobility that flying affords.''