ADB forecasts China's GDP to be around 8.5 pc in 2012

BEIJING: China's GDP growth this year is expected to be around 8.5 per cent, down from 9.2 per cent in 2011, as the economy slowed down due to declining exports and global downturn, the Asian Development Bank ( ADB) said in its annual report today.

China's economic growth is set to moderate slightly over the next two years but will exceed 8 per cent, on the back of strong investment, rising private consumption and a more stable global economy, Paul J Heytens, ADB Country Director for China, told media here today.

China's GDP growth in 2012 is forecast at 8.5 per cent, with the priority of macro policy expected to shift from fighting inflation which currently at 3.6 per cent to stabilising growth.

Supported by stronger global growth momentum, China's economy is likely to expand 8.7 per cent in 2013, he said while releasing the report.

China's economy expanded by 9.2 per cent in 2011 to 47.16 trillion yuan (about USD 7.49 trillion) from a year earlier when it grew 10.4 per cent in 2010.

The ADB expected China's exports and imports to increase by around 15 per cent and 18 per cent in 2012, respectively.

The contribution of net exports to GDP growth is projected to remain negative, and the trade surplus will continue narrowing, it said.

China has aimed to increase the volume of total exports and imports by around 10 per cent year-on-year in 2012, a sharp slowdown from last year when China's imports and exports rose 22.5 per cent year-on-year to USD 3.64 trillion, news agency Xinhua reported.

Nominal private consumption is expected to grow by almost 12 per cent in both 2012 and 2013, boosted by continued employment and wage growth as well as increased government social expenditure, according to the ADB report.