Xi Jinping's Delhi visit could be the big brick in the BRICS summit

The most consequential development at next month's BRICS summit in New Delhi may be Xi Jinping's decision to travel to India for the first time in seven years and hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Reuters has reported that Xi is expected to arrive with a delegation of around 400 officials, business representatives and support staff, suggesting preparations for discussions extending well beyond the formal BRICS agenda. However, there has been no official confirmation of Xi's visit yet.

Since the 2020 border clash, India-China ties have been defined by strategic distrust despite efforts at stabilisation. But both countries have gradually restored high-level engagement over the past two years. If the Delhi summit produces further movement in bilateral relations, it could also remove one of the biggest obstacles that has prevented BRICS from evolving beyond a platform for political messaging into a grouping capable of taking concrete economic decisions.

For much of its existence, BRICS has struggled to translate ambition into action. The grouping has expanded, its political profile has risen and its members increasingly speak of reshaping global governance. However, internal divisions have often limited outcomes. Among those divisions, none has mattered more than the uneasy relationship between India and China, the two largest economies in the bloc and the countries most capable of driving major initiatives.


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Why Xi's Delhi visit would matter

Xi's visit, if it indeed happens, would be his first trip to India since 2019 and comes at a moment when both governments have been attempting to stabilise relations after years of tension. The summit therefore carries importance beyond BRICS diplomacy.

The size of the Chinese delegation is particularly notable. Large state visits involving hundreds of officials are typically designed to facilitate parallel discussions across ministries, regulators, business groups and sectoral agencies. That creates space for conversations on trade, manufacturing, technology, connectivity, investment, energy and financial cooperation alongside the political dialogue between the two leaders.

A Modi-Xi meeting in Delhi would not erase structural competition between the two countries. Border disputes remain unresolved and both continue to compete for influence across Asia and the Indian Ocean. India also remains wary of China's economic dominance within BRICS. But diplomacy does not require the elimination of rivalry. It requires the management of rivalry sufficiently to allow cooperation where interests overlap. That overlap appears to be growing in some areas.

Trump's trade policies have created a new convergence

One factor influencing calculations in both India and China is US Pesident Donald Trump's use of tariffs and trade restrictions as instruments of American economic policy.

India and China have very different relationships with Washington. India sees the US as an important strategic partner while China increasingly views it as its principal geopolitical competitor. But both countries have reasons to be concerned about a more protectionist global trading environment.

For China, tariffs remain a direct economic challenge. For India, uncertainty surrounding trade rules, market access and global supply chains presents its own risks. This has created a limited but meaningful area of convergence. Neither India nor China wants external pressures to weaken institutions where emerging economies possess greater influence.

Xi's attendance at the summit can therefore be interpreted as a signal that China sees value in maintaining momentum within BRICS despite disagreements among members. For India, successful management of the summit would reinforce its position as a leading voice of the Global South while demonstrating that strategic competition with China need not prevent cooperation on selected economic issues.

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Can BRICS move beyond declarations?

The challenge for BRICS has never been a lack of ambition but a lack of consensus. The grouping achieved a major institutional breakthrough with the creation of the New Development Bank in 2014. Beyond that, however, many headline-grabbing ideas have advanced slowly or remained largely rhetorical.

Expansion of BRICS has made consensus even harder. The admission of countries such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia has increased BRICS' geopolitical weight but also broadened the range of interests represented within the bloc.

The difficulties were visible earlier this year when BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi failed to issue a joint statement because of differences over the conflict in West Asia. Such episodes underlines the perception that BRICS remains more effective at expressing dissatisfaction with the existing international order than at constructing alternatives.

The India-China relationship sits at the centre of this problem. Whenever India and China are at odds, it becomes significantly harder for the bloc to advance major initiatives. Their cooperation is not sufficient to guarantee action, but it is often necessary for action to occur.

The most serious proposal on the Delhi BRICS table

The area attracting the greatest attention ahead of the summit is financial cooperation. Recent remarks by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that BRICS countries are discussing the linking of payment systems and examining interoperability involving central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The objective is not the creation of a common currency but the development of infrastructure that allows cross-border transactions to be conducted more efficiently using national currencies.

A BRICS currency has long attracted political attention and media speculation. In practice, it faces enormous obstacles. The grouping lacks the economic integration, institutional architecture and political cohesion necessary to support a common currency arrangement. Payment connectivity is, however, a different proposition. It is technically achievable and economically useful.

India already operates one of the world's most advanced real-time retail payment networks through UPI. Several BRICS countries have developed their own domestic systems. Linking these networks could reduce transaction costs, improve settlement efficiency and gradually increase the use of local currencies in trade.

Such a project would not challenge the dollar's global role overnight. It would, however, create practical alternatives for participating countries. That is precisely the type of incremental institutional development that many analysts believe BRICS needs. If India and China are able to cooperate on this agenda, the likelihood of meaningful progress increases substantially on this count.

The grain exchange proposal

Another initiative gaining attention is Russia's proposal for a BRICS grain exchange. As per a recent ET report, discussions have included the creation of a trading platform and broader digital mechanisms for agricultural commerce among BRICS members.

Unlike many grand geopolitical proposals associated with the bloc, a grain exchange addresses a specific economic function. Several BRICS countries are among the world's largest producers, exporters or consumers of agricultural commodities. Improved coordination could enhance price discovery, facilitate trade and strengthen food security cooperation. It could potentially end the dominance of certain commodity exchanges on global agricultural trading and prices.

The proposal remains at an early stage and substantial questions regarding governance and implementation would need to be resolved. But it represents the kind of institution-building effort that can produce measurable outcomes rather than symbolic declarations. Its prospects would improve considerably if the summit generates broader political momentum between India and China.

Better India-China ties won't transform BRICS overnight

Even under the most optimistic scenario, BRICS will continue to face significant internal constraints. India and China remain strategic competitors. Russia's priorities do not always align with those of many other countries. Gulf members bring different economic interests as well as differences. Political systems and foreign policy objectives too vary widely across the expanded grouping. No summit is likely to resolve these contradictions.

What a Modi-Xi meeting could do is reduce one of the most important sources of paralysis. A more stable bilateral relationship would create space for cooperation in areas where interests already overlap, particularly payments, trade facilitation, development finance and commodity markets.

That would not turn BRICS into a cohesive geopolitical bloc. Nor would it produce the long-discussed BRICS currency that remains more fantasy than policy. It could, however, help the grouping make progress in areas where practical cooperation is possible and where member states see tangible economic benefits.

The real test of Delhi BRICS summit

The success of the Delhi summit is unlikely to be measured by the language of its final communique. BRICS declarations have often contained ambitious promises that produced little follow-through. The more important question is whether the meeting creates conditions for sustained cooperation between the grouping's two most influential Asian members.

If Xi's visit leads to further stabilisation in India-China relations, even without major breakthroughs on contentious issues, it could remove a longstanding obstacle to collective action within BRICS. In that case, initiatives such as payment-system integration and a grain exchange would stand a much better chance of moving from discussion to implementation.

For a grouping frequently criticised as a mere talking shop, that alone would represent a meaningful step forward. And if that happens, Xi's trip to Delhi may ultimately prove to be the most important brick laid at this year's BRICS summit.