World Meteorological Day: Outlook sunny for private forecasters in India

If you own a smartphone, chances are you’ve used a weather forecasting app. The little infographics that show you the probability of rain and the temperature for the week are built on incredible amounts of data factoring for everything from pressure to wind speed and historical weather patterns.

Behind these easy-to-read numbers is a billion-dollar global industry. Within this billion dollar industry, the Indian market accounts for nearly $100 million. Reports estimate that this number will only grow in the coming years, with the global industry expected to hit $3.5 billion by 2030.

According to a report from Allied Market Research, the weather forecasting and services market will grow to $2.7 billion this year, up from $1.2 billion in 2016, with short-range forecasting driving much of this boom.


The business of weather forecasting
But, how do forecasters make their money? After all, most weather forecasting apps are free to use. With the weather becoming increasingly unpredictable, companies like The Weather Channel are becoming increasingly invaluable to governments and businesses. In 2019, the Indian government partnered with IBM's The Weather Company, the owner of the The Weather Channel, to cater to agriculture, logistics and transport sectors. The American outfit also has a working partnership with Niti Aayog to aid precision farming.

In addition to government collaborations, The Weather Company also works with Kochi-based private logistics firms like XShip, which uses the forecasts to predict the best route for its ships to take.

Then there’s the Indian Meteorological Department. The country’s go-to forecaster for major weather events. Founded in 1875, the government arm works to predict the country’s monsoons and stay ahead of storms.

“If you compare with other service providers from all over the world, we’re second to none in terms of certain events like cyclones or heat waves,” IMD chief M. Mohapatra told the Economic Times in 2019.

Small players are catching up
With access to supercomputers, forecasting models, weather stations and observational networks of satellites, the government agency has continued to have the upper hand in the forecasting business, but the smaller players are quickly catching up.

Skymet — founded in 2003 — started releasing its own monsoon forecasts a decade ago and has managed to keep up with the central body, even typing up with the Kerala and Maharashtra governments for forecasts.

“The weather forecasting market in India is worth at least $100 million and is growing at a rapid pace,” Jatin Singh, the founder of Skymet, had told ET. “The world is dominated by one or two companies, and I’m not sure they understand tropical meteorology."

Private players like Skymet and The Weather Company have expanded their presence across the country, with Skymet serving more than 20 clients from sectors like agriculture, power, oil and gas, insurance and banking, while IBM-owned The Weather Company continues to power private-public partnerships in the country.

IMD chief Mohapatra had told ET that private forecasters should complement IMD instead of competing with it. Private players can customise the forecast issued by IMD to cater to the requirements of the specific sector, he said. That will help the country and there will be enough space for the private players to do their job. But private players want IMD to broaden the interface with them.

The rise of private forecasters comes at a time when climate change continues to make forecasts increasingly finicky, even as weather forecasting technology improves rapidly.

This perfect storm has made it possible to predict weather more and more accurately in the short term, providing companies with data that can be used to make business decisions, fuelling their reliance on forecasters and propelling the weather industry forward.