Why is North India experiencing intense cold while Kashmir and Ladakh remain surprisingly warm

North India is still feeling the shivers due to the cold wave as it records its coldest morning in the past few days.

However, the western Himalayan region has experienced a significant shortage of rainfall, with an 80% precipitation deficit in December. The lack of active western disturbances this winter season, which bring unseasonal rainfall to northwest India, is being attributed to this dry spell, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The absence of these weather systems has also resulted in a persistent layer of fog over the plains in the region since December 25.

The precipitation deficit is expected to have a negative impact on freshwater availability in the Himalayan region, affecting horticulture and agricultural production.


Observing the warm temperature in Lakadh and Kashmir which are usually covered in snow has been a cause of worry for experts.

Sonam Lotus, the head of the meteorological centre in Leh in Ladakh, has been concerned about the crops which are blooming early due to the warm tempertures in these areas.

Raihana Habib Kanth, the Dean of Agriculture at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, highlighted the significance of snowfall during the Chillai Kalan period (December 21 to January 29) as the primary source of freshwater before the southwest monsoon arrives. She noted that the prolonged dry spell has led to a reduction in water levels in the rivers and streams of the region.

According to a report by IMD scientists Krishna Mishra, Naresh Kumar, and RK Jenamani, maximum temperatures have been below normal by 5-8 degrees Celsius over the northern plains since December 29. The minimum temperatures have also been below 4 degrees Celsius at several stations in the region from January 12 to 17.

Reasons for cold wave in northwest India:
Additionally, dense fog has been persisting over the plains of northwest India since December 25, with visibility dropping to zero metres on January 14.

The lack of active western disturbances over northwest India during December and January is the primary cause of this severe weather. Typically, the region experiences 5-7 western disturbances during these months, but so far, there have been none. Only two weak disturbances have affected the country, with their impact limited to Gujarat, north Maharashtra, east Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.

The absence of active western disturbances, prevailing El-Nino conditions, and a strong jet stream are three major reasons which have been attributed to the ongoing cold wave in the mentioned areas.

Fog formation requires weak low-level winds, moisture, and overnight cooling, all of which are disrupted by strong western disturbances. The presence of a strong jet stream over north India has led to the subsidence of cold air and the enhancement of cold wave/cold day conditions.

The prevailing El-Nino conditions, characterized by abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, have also contributed to the lack of active western disturbances. During El-Nino years, there are fewer cold wave days over north India in December and January.

The IMD predicts that these conditions will continue over the next five days, further exacerbating the ongoing severe weather in the region.

(with agency inputs)