Why heatwaves are becoming India’s new normal: A deep dive into what’s behind the scorching temperatures

As heatwave conditions intensify across India, concerns around El Nino have returned. Experts say the climate phenomenon can influence global weather patterns, but it is not the direct cause of the extreme heat being seen in many parts of the country.

Why experts are worried about El Nino

El Nino affects global weather and can influence rainfall, drought and extreme weather events across regions. In India, it is often linked to erratic monsoon patterns, which can disrupt agriculture and water availability.

Experts say this is one reason El Nino is watched closely whenever temperatures rise sharply.

Can El Nino be blamed for the heatwave?

Not entirely.

Experts say El Nino can amplify conditions that make heatwaves more severe, but it is not the direct reason behind the current heatwave conditions.

According to weather experts, fewer western disturbances and persistent high-pressure systems are among the key reasons driving the extreme heat.

How bad is the heatwave situation?

Maximum temperatures in many parts of India have been ranging between 40°C and 46°C.

Some exceptions have seen even higher temperatures. Banda in east Uttar Pradesh recorded 45.6°C, among the highest maximum temperatures reported.

Heatwave forecast for April to June

Experts expect an above-normal number of heatwave days in parts of:

• East India
• Central India
• North-west India
• South-east peninsula

This suggests prolonged heat stress in several regions over the coming months.

What is El Nino?

El Nino occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become warmer than usual.

This warming can affect winds, rainfall patterns and temperatures in different parts of the world.

What is ‘Super El Nino’?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) do not use the term ‘Super El Nino’ as part of a standard operational classification.

Experts say this year’s El Nino may be a strong event, but a more confident forecast is likely only after April.

How El Nino affects weather

El Nino is often linked to:

• Weakened or reversed trade winds
• Reduced upwelling in the Pacific
• Warm water shifting eastward
• Drought conditions in some regions
• Heavy rainfall and flooding in others

While El Nino may worsen heatwave conditions, experts say it should not be seen as the sole cause of India’s extreme heat.

For now, the stronger drivers remain persistent high pressure, fewer western disturbances and broader climate variability.