Too early to say second Covid wave has peaked; vaccine availability "national bottleneck": Crisil

Rating company Crisil said it’s too early to call India’s peak of Covid-19 cases even though lockdown restrictions appear to have moderated the rise in daily cases for the first time since the second wave began.

Daily cases fell 15% sequentially for the week ended May 16, it said, while pointing out that vaccine availability had become a “national bottleneck.”

Business activity in the week under review dropped to June levels, according to Nomura. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) fell to 61.9 for this period from 66.1 a week earlier.


Decline in cases
Fresh daily cases averaged about 360,000 as of May 16 after touching a high of over 414,000 on May 6, Crisil said in a report on Monday, noting that at the same time, testing had not dipped. Data released on Monday showed daily new cases fell to less than 300,000 for the first time in 26 days.

“However, it’s too early to call a peak,” Crisil said, citing reports of rising infections in rural areas.

Major affected states including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh reported fewer new infections. While India’s recovery rate improved to 84.8% as of May 16 from 82.2% a week earlier, daily vaccinations dipped on account of availability bottlenecks, with some states halting the inoculation drive for the 18-44 age group, Crisil said in the report titled ‘Jabbing Pain.’

“Daily vaccinations have reduced to 1,455 per million people (week ended May 16), from 1,770 at the end of April. The world average is 2,962 per million,” Crisil said.