Tensions with Pakistan persist; J&K polls announcement unlikely to have an impact

The announcement of polls in Jammu and Kashmir is unlikely to have any impact on India-Pakistan ties which remain in a deep freeze since India revoked the special status of the erstwhile state, or even well before that.

With the Supreme Court having upheld the repeal of the special status, India believes the question about whether Pakistan has a locus standi in how the Indian govt chooses to run the internal affairs of what is now a Union Territory is already settled. On the limited issue of territory, both countries will continue to maintain their clearly stated and uncompromising positions.

Islamabad, however, will maintain that elections and a return to statehood, as suggested by the Supreme Court ruling, cannot replace the people's right to self-determination. Additionally, any further delay in elections would likely be leveraged by Pakistan to support its view that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir remains abnormal.


The Supreme Court's order to hold elections might have given an opportunity for both sides to make progress toward normalizing their ties. However, Islamabad has officially stated that no progress can be made until India reverses the revocation, dismissing internal calls in Pakistan to renew trade relations with India.

Unlike in the past, there's hardly any pressure on India from its western partners to engage Pakistan in the name of peace, allowing the Indian govt to resolutely maintain Pakistan must take tangible measures against cross-border terrorism for any dialogue to take place. That Pakistan complicated the relationship further by unilaterally recalling its high commissioner after the change in Kashmir's status has only worked in India's favour, justifying its position that any initiative for a breakthrough has to come from Islamabad.

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif's elder brother Nawaz Sharif, whom Narendra Modi once called a "friend", did reach out with a message to seize the opportunity, after Indian PM won his third term in office, to "shape the destiny of the two billion people of south Asia" but for India, it's more important that Pakistan first reinstate its high commissioner to set the ball of diplomacy rolling.

In his response to Nawaz, PM Modi spoke about the need to ensure the well-being and security of the people, underlining India's position that Islamabad has to first create an atmosphere free of terror for dialogue. The recent terror attacks have also exacerbated India's concerns about terrorism, as obvious from his message to the "patrons of terrorism" across the LoC that their sinister plan would not succeed. Naming Pakistan, Modi had said it had not learnt anything from history and was trying to remain relevant through terrorism and proxy war.

(With TOI inputs)