Tamil Nadu close to reaching peak on new Covid-19 cases: Virologist Jacob John

Tamil Nadu is close to reaching the peak on new Covid-19 cases, leading virologist T Jacob John said, even as the state has for the past week been reporting the highest number of daily new infections in the country.

The retired professor and head of clinical virology and microbiology at Christian Medical College, Vellore, said the epidemic acceleration peaked on May 13 in Tamil Nadu and was steadily coming down. The national case peak was on May 6, he added.

“Lockdown (in the state) was applied on May 10th, just before the momentum peaked on 13th,” he said. The number peak, he said, “is around the corner”. When asked how cases were going up despite a complete lockdown in the state, the doctor said it was due to the natural process of epidemic dynamics. Once momentum peaks, number peaks are sure to follow, he added.


“The numbers continued to rise because it takes some days before the effect of momentum deceleration results in numerical peak and epidemic decline,” he said. “Karnataka and TN applied lockdown during the ascending phase of epidemic curve — but in Tamil Nadu, it was a bit late for flattening the curve as the curve began the process of decline just a few days later.”

On Tuesday, Tamil Nadu reported 34,285 new cases of Covid-19 with a positivity rate of 21.12%. This took the number of active cases in the state to 3,06,652.

Chennai continues to be the worst affected district while neighbouring districts like Chengalpattu too have seen a spike in numbers. The other badly affected districts include Madurai and Coimbatore.

John said his biggest concern with regard to the second wave of Covid was that it was caused by variants missed by INSACOG (Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genome Sequencing Consortia), “apparently because INSACOG was not funded (as rumoured)”.