Stars align for India-Canada ties as Carney favours national interest over diaspora: Experts

New Delhi: Former Indian high commissioner to Canada Ajay Bisaria described the country's recent assessment that India is no longer linked to transnational crimes as a "genuine de-escalation" in bilateral ties, asserting that the "stars are aligned" for renewal of relations between the two countries.

The relations between the two countries were strained during Justin Trudeau's tenure over security-related issues.

In an interview with PTI Videos, Bisaria said this shift represents a concerted effort to handle security issues maturely, without letting them derail the broader political and economic partnership.


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"Both countries are dealing with this security challenge with a great deal of maturity. That security challenge, both countries realise, was a deal breaker in the relationship, which brought a freeze... now the attempt is to deal with it with a certain degree of maturity, to not let it escalate into a political problem," Bisaria said.

He pointed to National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's visit to Canada earlier this month as part of efforts to "contain the security issues in a box" and manage them without polluting other areas of cooperation.

While future security issues cannot be ruled out entirely, Bisaria noted that the relationship is now being "shock-proofed" against such eventualities, similar to how India handles occasional frictions with the US or the UK.

The key difference from the past, he added, is that political ties are now providing a tailwind to economic engagement rather than a headwind. Canadian investments in India, exceeding USD 100 billion through FDI and portfolio flows, remain robust, with pension funds and investment firms continuing to show strong confidence in India's growth story.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's ongoing visit to India, which began in Mumbai with meetings of business leaders, will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on March 2.

Bisaria attributed the turning point in strained ties to geopolitical shifts triggered by US President Donald Trump. "This situation... provided an accelerator to the relationship and is getting it to stabilisation and normalisation much faster than it would otherwise have happened," Bisaria said.

He highlighted a significant policy shift in Ottawa towards pragmatic national interests over diaspora-driven influences that had previously infiltrated foreign policy.

"This shift is caused by geopolitics as well as a pragmatic understanding of Canada's own interests... India is an important part of it," he added, suggesting the change could endure beyond the current administration.

On the economic front, Bisaria expressed optimism over the revival of talks for the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

"Stars are all aligned... this discussion will probably go on an accelerated time frame this year, and we hope there is an agreement we can reach," he said.

A key highlight of Carney's visit could be the revival of a long-term uranium supply deal, which could be valued around USD 3 billion. Beyond uranium, cooperation is expected in mining, AI, defence and critical minerals.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), echoed the view on complementary trade profiles.

India exports medicines, gems and jewellery, textiles and machinery to Canada, while importing pulses, timber, pulp, paper and mining products. "These are the areas where imports do not threaten domestic industry," Srivastava underlined.