Southwest moonsoon likely to hit Kerala within 4-5 days, earliest in a decade

The southwest monsoon is gearing up to arrive in Kerala well ahead of its usual June 1 timeline, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. If the rains do roll in within the next four to five days as predicted, it would mark the earliest monsoon onset over the Indian mainland in over a decade—since May 23, 2009.

The weather office had earlier estimated a May 27 onset, and current conditions suggest the stage is now set for a timely advance. “Favourable factors for the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala are likely to develop in the next 4–5 days,” the IMD noted in its latest bulletin.

Unusually early arrival


Kerala typically sees the first showers of the monsoon by June 1. From there, the seasonal rains sweep across the country by early July, eventually retreating by mid-October. However, recent years have seen a wide variation in onset dates, with the monsoon arriving on June 8 in 2023 and as early as May 29 in 2022.

This year’s potentially early arrival aligns with the IMD’s April forecast, which anticipated above-average rainfall across the country—helped by the absence of El Niño conditions that tend to disrupt rain patterns in the region.

Rainfall outlook

According to the IMD, monsoon rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long-term average (87 cm over 50 years) is considered ‘normal.’ Less than 90% is deemed ‘deficient,’ while precipitation over 110% qualifies as ‘excess.’

The monsoon isn’t just about cooling temperatures—it’s the lifeline for India’s agrarian economy. Nearly 42% of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihood, and the rains are essential for irrigating crops, filling reservoirs, and supporting drinking water supplies and hydropower generation across the country.

As anticipation builds, farmers and policymakers alike will be watching the skies—hoping the early arrival brings both relief and resilience to the months ahead.