Southwest monsoon may reach Andaman and Nicobar Islands by May 16: IMD

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon could make an onset over parts of Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman & Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private weather forecaster Skymet. Skymet predicted May 16 as the possible date for arrival of the monsoon over the region. However, Skymet said mainland India may have to wait slightly longer for monsoon advancement as the required atmospheric conditions are unlikely to align over the Arabian Sea and Kerala coast for at least another week or even longer.

Monsoon first reaches Andaman near the third week of May every year, subsequently making its journey towards the mainland. The official date for monsoon onset over Kerala, which marks its arrival over the mainland, is June 1.

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India is expected to get below-average monsoon this year with the official weather office forecasting rainfall to be 'below normal' at 92% of the long period average (LPA). "Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon likely over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week," IMD said in a statement on Tuesday.

The low-pressure area over Southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region on May 12, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 km above mean sea level, IMD said, adding that it is likely to become more marked during the next 48 hours.

Also Read: Conditions favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over South Bay of Bengal, Andaman: IMD

India receives 75-80% rainfall during the four-month long monsoon season, crucial for the planting of major crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. While lower farm output could accelerate food inflation, it would also affect farmers' income, hurting demand in rural India for fast-moving consumer products, motorcycles, tractors, and other goods.

The kharif season, which starts in June, accounts for more than half of India's foodgrain production and its outcome is crucial for food inflation.

Skymet had said rainfall in June would likely be 101% of LPA. It could fall to 95% in July, 92% in August, and 89% in September, according to the agency.