Southwest monsoon likely to enter weak phase from today

The southwest monsoon is likely to enter a weak phase from Tuesday, the weather bureau said — a concern for the country as it could worsen a shortfall in rains that could affect summer crop's output.

This would be the second such break in monsoon this season, after a three-week period that ended on July 10 when the monsoon winds stalled completely around north India.

Only some parts of eastern and north-eastern India will receive heavy rainfall for the rest of the week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement on Monday. Rainfall in these two regions will peak between August 11 and 14, it said.


Parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand might also see showers.

The IMD did not specify when the weak phase would end, saying that meteorological conditions were unfavourable for any activity.

So far, August has seen a 28% deficit in rainfall, led by huge shortfalls in central (-45%) and southern (-48%) parts of the country. This deficit will widen as the break phase of the monsoon continues.

This will hamper the progress of sowing of the kharif crop, which had just started to recover after lagging behind last year's corresponding acreage due to the delay in monsoon winds.

As of August 6, kharif sowing was 2.36% behind last year's numbers in the same period, up from a shortfall of 4.71% on July 30, official data by the Ministry of Agriculture showed.

The shortfall could affect agriculture output and income in rural India. The rural market is a key driver of demand for consumer goods, automobiles, gold and other items, and any impact on farm income could slow down economic recovery.

Monsoon started with a blistering pace for the first three weeks of the season, before unexpectedly coming to a halt. June ended with a 10% rain surplus, but there was a deficit of 8% in July.