India's southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on June 1, according to private weather forecaster Skymet, a day later than the official prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon, which advances northward and typic...
To be sure, Skymet's forecast has a model error of three days on either side while that of IMD is four days.
The southwest monsoon enters mainland India through Kerala. It then advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country by around July 15, according to IMD.
Skymet said unlike last year, there is no active cyclone around the globe, more so in the southern hemisphere near peninsular India, to detract monsoon. "Prior to the onset of 1st June, hefty pre-monsoon thundershowers are expected over Lakshadweep, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka," the private weather forecaster said in a statement on Thursday.
India, where a large part of farmland is still rain fed, gets 70% of rainfall during the four-month long monsoon season which starts in June with the onset of southwest monsoon and ends in September after its withdrawal.
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Plentiful rains will support farm output, drive economic growth and support the government's depleting foodgrain stocks, helping ease food inflation. IMD said earlier that El Nino, which caused erratic rainfall last year reducing the agricultural output by 6%, is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral by April-June 2024, with increasing odds of La Nina developing in June-August 2024.
While El Nino caused erratic and less than normal rainfall in the country, La Nina conditions are known to cause good rains. The SW monsoon is very likely to advance into the South Andaman Sea, some parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands around May 19, as per IMD.
Weak monsoon threat looms; food inflation fears rise
